U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 5% from July

by Ron Sterk
Share This:

WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 698 million bus, up 34 million bus, or 5%, from 664 million bus projected in July but down 45 million bus, or 6%, from 743 million bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Aug. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 680 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 650 million bus, down 533 million bus, or 45%, from 1,183 million bus in July and down 371 million bus, or 36%, from an upwardly revised 1,021 million bus estimated in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was near the average of trade expectations of 651 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 115 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 12%, from 130 million bus in July and down 30 million bus, or 21%, from an downwardly revised 145 million bus estimated for this year.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover number was as expected by the trade.

U.S. all wheat production was forecast at 2,268 million bus for 2012, up 44 million bus, or 2%, from 2,224 million bus in July and up 269 million bus, or 13%, from 1,999 million bus in 2011. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,141 million bus for 2012-13, up 54 million bus, or 2%, from July and up 167 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from July but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bus, also unchanged from July but down 4 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 220 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 10%, from 200 million bus in July and up 57 million bus, or 35%, from 163 million bus in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,243 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 2%, from 1,223 million bus in July and up 62 million bus, or 5%, from 1,181 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,200 million bus, unchanged from July and up 150 million bus, or 14%, from 1,050 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,443 million bus, up 20 million bus from July and up 12 million bus from 2,231 million bus last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.60@9 a bu, up from $6.20@7.40 in July and compared with $7.24 in 2011-12.

“Tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year,” the U.S.D.A. said.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 248 million bus, down 18 million bus, or 7%, from 266 million bus in July and down 69 million bus, or 22%, from 317 million bus in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 159 million bus, up 16 million bus, or 11%, from 143 million bus in July but down 26 million bus, or 14%, from 185 million bus in 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 183 million bus, up 28 million bus, or 18%, from 155 million bus in July and up 32 million bus, or 21%, from 151 million bus in 2012.

White wheat carryover was projected at 64 million bus in 2013, up 4 million bus from July and unchanged from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 44 million bus, up 4 million bus from July and up 18 million bus, or 69%, from 26 million bus in 2012.

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 662.83 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from July and down 32.35 million tonnes, or 5%, from 695.18 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 683.25 million tonnes, up 3.19 million tonnes from July but down 12.31 million tonnes, or 18%, from 695.56 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 135.21 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from July but down 18.7 million tonnes, or 12%, from 153.91 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 177.17 million tonnes, down 5.27 million tonnes, or 3%, from July and down 20.42 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.59 million tonnes in 2011-12.

“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7-million-ton reduction in foreign production,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output.”

U.S. corn production in 2012, the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 10,779 million bus, down 2,191 million bus, or 17%, from July and down 1,579 million bus, or 13%, from 12,358 million bus in 2011. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,875 million bus, down 2,028 million bus, or 15%, from July and down 1,636 million bus, or 12%, from 13,511 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,075 million bus, down 725 million bus, or 15%, from 4,800 million bus in July and down 475 million bus, or 10%, from 4,550 million bus 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,850 million bus, down 470 million bus from July (including corn for ethanol at 4,500 million bus, down 400 million bus, and food and seed use at 1,350 million bus, down 70 million bus from July), and down 540 million bus from 6,390 million bus in 2011-12 (including corn for ethanol down 500 million bus from 2011-12 and food and seed use down 40 million bus).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,300 million bus, down 300 million bus, or 19%, from 1,600 million bus in July and down 250 bus, or 16%, from 1,550 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.50@8.90 a bu, compared with $5.40@6.40 in July and $6.20@6.30 in 2011-12.

U.S. 2012 soybean production, also the first survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 2,692 million bus, down 358 million bus, or 12%, from 3,050 million bus in July and down 364 million bus, or 12% from 3,056 million bus in 2011. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 2,857 million bus, down 378 million bus, or 12%, from 3,235 million bus in July and down 429 million bus, or 13%, from 3,286 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2,742 million bus, down 363 million bus, or 12%, from 3,105 million bus in July and down 399 million bus, or 13%, from 3,141 million bus in 2011-12.

Crushings were projected at 1,515 million bus, down 95 million bus from July and down 175 million bus from 1,690 million bus in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1,110 million bus, down 260 million bus, or 19%, from 1,370 million bus in July and down 240 million bus, or 18%, from an upwardly revised 1,350 million bus in 2011-12. Residual was lowered 8 million bus from July to 27 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $15@17 a bus, up $2 from July and compared with $12.45 in 2011-12.

Add a Comment
We welcome your thoughtful comments. Please comply with our Community rules.








The views expressed in the comments section of Baking Business News do not reflect those of Baking Business News or its parent company, Sosland Publishing Co., Kansas City, Mo. Concern regarding a specific comment may be registered with the Editor by clicking the Report Abuse link.