U.S. 2013 wheat carryover unchanged from August

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 698 million bus, unchanged from the August projection but down 45 million bus, or 6%, from 743 million bus in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 709 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 733 million bus, up 83 million bus, or 13%, from 650 million bus in August but down 448 million bus, or 38%, from 1,181 million bus estimated in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 618 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013 was projected at 115 million bus, unchanged from August but down 15 million bus, or 12%, from 130 million bus estimated for this year and a nine-year low, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was above the average of trade estimates that was near 106 million bus.

Except for price and some wheat-by-class projections, there were no changes from August in the U.S.D.A. 2012-13 all wheat numbers. U.S. all wheat production was forecast at 2,268 million bus for 2012, unchanged from August and up 269 million bus, or 13%, from 1,999 million bus in 2011. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,141 million bus for 2012-13, up 167 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from August but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12, and seed use at 73 million bus, down 4 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 220 million bus, unchanged from August but up 57 million bus, or 35%, from 163 million bus in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,243 million bus, up 62 million bus, or 5%, from 1,181 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,200 million bus, unchanged from August and up 150 million bus, or 14%, from 1,050 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,443 million bus, up 212 million bus from last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.50@8.70 a bu, down from $7.60@9 a bu projected in August and compared with $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

“Prices reported for the summer months, when producers typically market nearly half the crop, have remained well below cash bids and futures prices, suggesting substantial forward pricing by producers earlier in the year,” the U.S.D.A. said.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 273 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 10%, from 248 million bus in August but down 44 million bus, or 14%, from 317 million bus in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 159 million bus, unchanged from August but down 26 million bus, or 14%, from 185 million bus in 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 168 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 8%, from 183 million bus in August but up 17 million bus, or 11%, from 151 million bus in 2012.

White wheat carryover was projected at 54 million bus in 2013, down 10 million bus from August and down 10 million bus from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 44 million bus, unchanged from August but up 18 million bus, or 69%, from 26 million bus in 2012.

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 658.73 million tonnes, down 4.1 million tonnes from August and down 36.31 million tonnes, or 5%, from a downwardly revised 695.04 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 680.66 million tonnes, down 2.59 million tonnes from August and down 13.69 million tonnes, or 2%, from a downwardly revised 694.35 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 134.83 million tonnes, down 380,000 tonnes from 135.21 million tonnes in August and down 19.81 million tonnes, or 13%, from an upwardly revised 154.64 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 176.71 million tonnes, down 460,000 tonnes from 177.17 million tonnes in August and down 21.93 million tonnes, or 11%, from an upwardly revised 197.59 million tonnes in 2011-12.

“Global wheat supplies for 2012-13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected production in Russia,” the U.S.D.A. said. “An increase in foreign beginning stocks partly offsets the projected 4.1-million-ton reduction in world wheat output.”

U.S. corn production in 2012 was forecast at 10,727 million bus, down 52 million bus from 10,779 million bus in August and down 1,631 million bus, or 13%, from 12,358 million bus in 2011. Imports in 2012-13 were projected at 75 million bus, unchanged from August but up 50 million bus from 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,983 million bus, up 108 million bus from 11,875 million bus in August but down 1,528 million bus, or 11%, from 13,511 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,150 million bus, up 75 million bus, or 2%, from 4,075 million bus in August but down 250 million bus, or 6%, from a downwardly revised 4,400 million bus 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,850 million bus, unchanged from August (including corn for ethanol at 4,500 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,350 million bus, unchanged), but down 540 million bus, or 8%, from 6,390 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,000 million bus for ethanol and 1,390 million bus for food and seed, both unchanged from August).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,250 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 4%, from 1,300 million bus in August and down 290 bus, or 19%, from a downwardly revised 1,540 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $7.20@8.60 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $7.50@8.90 in August and $6.25 in 2011-12.

U.S. 2012 soybean production was forecast at 2,634 million bus, down 58 million bus, or 2%, from 2,692 million bus in August and down 422 million bus, or 14%, from 3,056 million bus in 2011. Soybean imports were projected at 20 million bus, unchanged from August but up 4 million bus from an upwardly revised 16 million bus in 2011-12. Total supply in 2012-13 was projected at 2,785 million bus, down 72 million bus, or 3%, from 2,857 million bus in August and down 502 million bus, or 15%, from an upwardly revised 3,287 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 2,670 million bus, down 72 million bus, or 3%, from 2,742 million bus in August and down 487 million bus, or 15%, from an upwardly revised 3,157 million bus in 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1,500 million bus, down 15 million bus from August and down 205 million bus, or 12%, from an upwardly revised 1,705 million bus in 2011-12. Exports were projected at 1,055 million bus, down 55 million bus, or 5%, from 1,110 million bus in August and down 305 million bus, or 22%, from an upwardly revised 1,360 million bus in 2011-12. Residual was lowered 2 million bus from August to 25 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 89 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $15@17 a bu, unchanged from August and compared with $12.45 a bu in 2011-12.

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