U.S. corn down, soybeans up from September

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. 2012 corn production was forecast at 10,705,729,000 bus, down 21,635,000 bus from 10,727,364,000 bus forecast in September and down 13% from 12,358,412,000 bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 11 Crop Production report. Soybean production was forecast at 2,860,290,000 bus, up 225,980,000 bus, or 9%, from 2,634,310,000 bus forecast in September but down 8% from 3,093,524,000 bus last year.

If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 10,531,123,000 bus in 2006, the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A. corn number was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 10,598 million bus. The soybean number also was above the pre-report average of about 2,770 million bus.

Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded sharply higher immediately after the report at 7:30 a.m. Central time.

Based on Oct. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 122 bus an acre, down 0.8 bus from 122.8 bus forecast in September, down 25.2 bus from 147.2 bus an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 113.5 bus an acre in 1995, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 87,721,000 acres, up 360,000 acres from September and up 4% from 83,981,000 acres in 2011.

Soybean yield was forecast at 37.8 bus an acre, up 2.5 bus from 35.3 bus forecast in September but down 4.1 bus from 41.9 bus an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 33.9 bus an acre in 2003. Harvested area was forecast at 75,693,000 acres, up 1,058,000 acres, or 1%, from 74,635,000 acres in September and up 3% from 73,776,000 acres in 2011.

Grain sorghum production in 2012 was forecast at 251,977,000 bus, up 5,956,000 bus, or 2%, from 246,021,000 bus forecast in September and up 18% from 214,443,000 bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. estimated 2012 U.S. rice production at 198,860,000 cwts, up 2,542,000 cwts, or 1%, from 196,318,000 cwts forecast in September and up 7% from 185,009,000 cwts in 2011.

Peanut production in 2012 was forecast at 6,108.15 million lbs, up 188.7 million lbs, or 3%, from 5,919.5 million lbs in September and up 67%, from 3,658.6 million lbs in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. does not update wheat production estimates in October.

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