U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 8% from October

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 704 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 8%, from 654 million bus as the October projection due to a like reduction in forecast 2012-13 wheat exports, but down 39 million bus, or 5%, from carryover of 743 million bus estimated in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 666 million bus.

The 2012-13 “all” wheat numbers were unchanged from October except for exports, carryover and average price.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from October and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from October at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus for 2012-13, unchanged from October but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from October but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12. Feed and residual use was projected at 315 million bus, unchanged from October but up 151 million bus, or 92%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,338 million bus, unchanged from October but up 156 million bus, or 13%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,100 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 4%, from October but up 50 million bus, or 5%, from 1,050 million bus in 2011-12.

“Exports are projected 50 million bus lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments, and an outlook for increased foreign competition,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,438 million bus, down 50 million bus from October but up 207 million bus, or 9%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 was projected to range from $7.75@8.45 a bu, compared with $7.65@8.55 a bu projected in October and $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

On a by-class basis, the only changes from October were in hard winter and soft red winter wheat.

U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 229 million bus, up 34 million bus, or 17%, from 195 million bus in October but down 88 million bus, or 28%, from 317 million bus in 2012. Hard red supply was increased 9 million bus, to 1,331 million, while exports were reduced 25 million bus, to 520 million. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 205 million bus, up 16 million bus, or 8%, from 189 million bus in October and up 20 million bus, or 11%, from 185 million bus in 2012. Soft red supply was reduced by 9 million bus, to 626 million bus, and exports were lowered by 25 million bus, to 145 million bus for 2012-13.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 170 million bus, unchanged from October but up 19 million bus, or 13%, from 151 million bus in 2012. White wheat carryover was projected at 61 million bus, unchanged from October but down 3 million bus from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 39 million bus, unchanged from October but up 14 million bus, or 56%, from 25 million bus in 2012.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 647 million bus, up 28 million bus, or about 5%, from 619 million bus in October but down 341 million bus, or about 35%, from 988 million bus in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 635 million bus.

Corn production in 2012 was forecast at 10,725 million bus, up 19 million bus from 10,706 million bus forecast in October but down 13% from 12,358 million bus in 2011.

“Projected corn imports are raised 25 million bus reflecting expectations for more shipments, particularly into the southeastern feed market which ordinarily relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bus, up 25 million bus from October and up 71 million bus from 29 million bus in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,814 million bus, up 45 million bus from 11,769 million bus in October but down 1,701 million bus, or 13%, from 13,515 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,150 million bus, unchanged from October but down 397 million bus, or 9%, from a downwardly revised 4,547 million bus in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,867 million bus, up 17 million bus from October (including corn for ethanol at 4,500 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,367 million bus, up 17 million bus), but down 570 million bus, or 9%, from an upwardly revised 6,437 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bus for ethanol and 1,426 million bus for food and seed, both up from October).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 1,150 million bus, unchanged from October but down 393 million bus, or 25%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.95@8.25 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $7.10@8.50 in October and $6.22 in 2011-12.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 140 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 8%, from 130 million bus in October but down 29 million bus, or 17%, from 169 million bus in 2012.
The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was above the average of trade estimates that was near 133 million bus.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was forecast at 2,971 million bus, up 111 million bus, or 4%, from 2,860 million forecast in October but down 123 million bus, or 4%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from October at 20 million bus, up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,160 million bus, up 110 million bus, or 4%, from 3,050 million bus in October but down 165 million bus, or 5%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected at 3,021 million bus, up 101 million bus, or 3%, from 2,920 million bus in October but down 134 million bus, or 4%, from 3,155 million bus in 2011-12.

Crushings were projected at 1,560 million bus, up 20 million bus from October but down 143 million bus, or 8%, from 1,703 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bus, up 80 million bus, or 6%, from 1,265 million bus in October but down 17 million bus, or 1%, from a slightly upwardly revised 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.

The average farm price of soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.90@15.90 a bu, down from $14.25@16.25 a bu projected in October and compared with $12.50 a bu in 2011-12.

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