World 2012-13 wheat stocks up slightly from October

by Laura Lloyd
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WASHINGTON — World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 174.18 million tonnes, up 1.18 million tonnes from 173 million tonnes in October but down 23.71 million tonnes, or 12%, from 197.89 million tonnes in 2011-12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 704 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 8%, from 654 million bus as the October projection but down 39 million bus, or 5%, from 743 million bus in 2012. The projected U.S. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade of 666 million bus.

Global 2012-13 wheat production was projected at 651.43 million tonnes, down 1.62 million tonnes from October and down 44.63 million tonnes, or 6%, from an upwardly revised 696.06 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 675.14 million tonnes, down 3.08 million tonnes from October and down 20.98 million tonnes, or 3%, from an upwardly revised 696.12 million tonnes in 2011-12. World exports were projected at 132.69 million tonnes, up 1.82 million tonnes from 130.87 million tonnes in October and down 23.57 million tonnes, or 15%, from a downwardly revised 156.26 million tonnes in the prior year.

The U.S.D.A. reported significantly lower ending stocks for a number of countries that compete for export tonnesiness with the United States.

Australia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 4.64 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes from 4.84 million tonnes in October and down 1.92 million tonnes, or 29%, from 6.56 million tonnes in 2012.

Russia’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 4.94 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes from 5.44 million tonnes in October and down 5.50 million tonnes, or 53%, from 10.44 million tonnes in 2012.

Ukraine’s 2012-13 ending stocks were projected at 2.96 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from 4.46 million tonnes in October and down 2.2 million tonnes, or 43%, from 5.16 million tonnes in 2012.

“Global wheat trade is raised for 2012-13, reflecting the continuation of strong shipments from the Black Sea region and India, and the growing competitiveness of wheat from the EU-27,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Exports are raised 2.0 million tonnes for Ukraine, 1.0 million tonnes each for EU-27 and Russia, and 0.5 million tonnes for India. Partly offsetting these increases is a 1.5-million-tonne reduction for Australia with the smaller expected crop and the 1.4-million-tonne reduction projected for U.S. exports.”

World 2012-13 corn ending stocks were projected at 117.99 million tonnes, up 720,000 tonnes from 117.27 million tonnes in October but down 14.09 million tonnes, or 11%, from.132.08 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 647 million bus, up 28 million bus, or 5%, from 619 million bus in October but down 341 million bus, or 35%, from 988 million bus estimated in 2012. The U.S. 2013 corn carryover number was above the average of trade expectations of 635 million bus.

Global 2012-13 soybean ending stocks were projected at 60.02 tonnes, up 2.46 million tonnes, or 4%, from 57.56 million tonnes in October and up 4.02 million tonnes, or 7%, from 56.00 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 140 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 8%, from 130 million bus in October, but down 29 million bus, or 17%, from 169 million bus estimated for this year. The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was above the average of trade estimates of 133 million bus.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 102.25 million tonnes for 2012-13, up 280,000 tonnes from 101.97 million tonnes in October but down 3.56 million tonnes, or 3%, from 105.81 million tonnes in 2011-12.
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