Rabobank forecasts larger global sugar surplus

by Ron Sterk
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KANSAS CITY — Rabobank today forecast a global sugar surplus of 6.6 million tonnes in 2012-13, up from its previous forecast due to expected strong sugar outturn in top-producing Brazil.

Rabobank forecast 2012-13 sugar production in Brazil at 33.3 million tonnes, up 6% from a year earlier as strong late-season production offset a weather-delayed start to harvest.

Higher sugar output from Brazil, Mexico and other some other countries also offset reductions in India, Thailand, Russia and Ukraine, Rabobank said.

World raw sugar futures prices have mostly traded in a range of 19c to 22c a lb in recent months, and the second consecutive year of global surplus would likely keep sugar prices near the bottom of that range with a greater possibility of breaking below the low end than breaking above the top end, the bank said. Nearby world raw sugar futures in New York traded at 28-month lows last week but have recovered modestly so far this week, pulling above 19c a lb.
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