U.S. 2012-13 sugar supply, carryover trimmed

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2013, at 2,050,000 short tons, raw value, down 166,000 tons, or 7%, from 2,216,000 tons as the November projection but up 67,000 tons, or 3%, from 1,983,000 tons estimated for 2012, which was lowered 24,000 tons, or 1%, from 2,007,000 tons in November.

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was projected at 17.4%, down from 18.7% projected in November and slightly above 17.2% estimated for 2011-12. Stocks-to-use ratios for both years are above the top end of the U.S.D.A.’s “target” range.

For 2011-12, which ended Sept. 30, the U.S.D.A. raised estimated beet sugar production 5,000 tons, to 4,899,000 tons, resulting in like increases in total U.S. sugar production at 8,487,000 tons and total supply at 13,496,000 tons. Estimated imports were unchanged from November at 3,631,000 tons. Estimated 2011-12 deliveries were raised 29,000 tons, to 11,244,000 tons, based on a like increase in food deliveries at 11,071,000 tons, and resulting in a like increase in total use at 11,513,000 tons. Ending stocks were reduced 24,000 tons, to 1,983,000 tons, for 2011-12.

For 2012-13, U.S. beet sugar production was forecast at 5,200,000 tons, up 95,000 tons from November. Total U.S. sugar production was forecast at 8,920,000 tons, also up 95,000 tons with cane sugar output unchanged from November at 3,720,000 tons.

But lower beginning stocks and lower projected 2012-13 imports more than offset the gain in domestic sugar production and a 100,000-ton decrease in projected U.S. sugar exports at 175,000 tons.

U.S. sugar imports in 2012-13 were projected at 2,912,000 tons, down 337,000 tons, or 10%, from 3,249,000 tons in November and down 719,000 tons, or 20%, from 3,631,000 tons in 2011-12. Projected tariff-rate quota imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from November at 1,289,000 tons. “Other program” imports were halved from November to 225,000 tons.

Sugar imports from Mexico in 2012-13 were projected at 1,388,000 tons, down 112,000 tons, or 7%, from 1,500,000 tons as the November projection but up 317,000 tons, or 30%, from 1,071,000 tons estimated in 2011-12.

Total U.S. sugar supply in 2012-13 was projected at 13,815,000 tons, down 266,000 tons, or 2%, from 14,081,000 tons in November but up 319,000 tons, or 2%, from 13,496,000 tons in 2011-12.

Total domestic deliveries were projected at 11,590,000 tons for 2012-13, unchanged from November but up 346,000 tons from 11,244,000 tons in 2011-12. Deliveries for food were projected at 11,380,000 tons for this year, unchanged from November but up 3% from an upwardly revised 11,071,000 tons in 2011-12. Total sugar use in 2012-13 was projected at 11,765,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from November but up 252,000 tons, or 2%, from 11,513,000 tons last year.

For Mexico, the U.S.D.A. estimated 2011-12 ending stocks at 958,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 10,000 tonnes from November based on a like increase in estimated domestic use. For 2012-13, projected Mexican ending stocks were unchanged at 1,000,000 tonnes, as a 10,000-tonne reduction in beginning stocks and an 86,000-tonne decrease in projected imports were offset by a 96,000-tonne reduction in projected exports at 1,198,000 tonnes.
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