U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 7% from November

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 754 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 7%, from 704 million bus as the November projection due to a like reduction in forecast 2012-13 wheat exports, and up 11 million bus, or 1%, from carryover of 743 million bus estimated in 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was above the average expected by the trade that was near 718 million bus.

The 2012-13 “all” wheat numbers were unchanged from November except for exports, total use, carryover and average price, which was lowered to a projected range of $7.70@8.30 a bu from $7.75@8.45 as the November projection and compared with $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from November and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from November at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus for 2012-13, unchanged from November but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from November but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12. Feed and residual use was projected at 315 million bus, unchanged from November but up 151 million bus, or 92%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,338 million bus, unchanged from November but up 156 million bus, or 13%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,050 million bus, down 50 million bus, or about 5%, from November and equal to 2011-12 estimated exports.

“Projected exports are lowered 50 million bus reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies,” the U.S.D.A. said. “U.S. exports are projected 45 million bus lower for hard red winter wheat, 10 million bus lower for soft red winter wheat and 5 million bus lower for hard red spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bus.”

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,388 million bus, down 50 million bus from November but up 157 million bus, or 7%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 647 million bus, unchanged from November but down 341 million bus, or about 35%, from 988 million bus in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 666 million bus.

All 2012-13 U.S. corn projections were unchanged from November except average price, which was lowered to $6.80@8 a bu from $6.95@8.25 a bu projected in November and compared with $6.22 a bu in 2011-12.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 130 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 7%, from 140 million bus in November and down 39 million bus, or 23%, from 169 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average of trade estimates that was near 135 million bus.

Projected 2012-13 U.S. soybean crush was raised 10 million bus from November to 1,570 million bus, but still was down 133 million bus, or 8%, from 1,703 million bus crushed in 2011-12. Total use was projected at 3,031 million bus, up 10 million bus from November, reflecting the increased crush projection, but down 17 million bus from 1,362 million bus as the estimated use in 2011-12.

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.55@15.55 a bu, down from $13.90@15.90 a bu projected in November but up from $12.50 a bu in 2011-12.
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