U.S. 2013 wheat carryover down 5% from December

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 716 million bus, down 38 million bus, or 5%, from 754 million bus as the December projection due mainly to a projected 35-million-bu increase in feed and residual use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was below the average expected by the trade that was near 743 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from December and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from December at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus for 2012-13, unchanged from December but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from December but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12. Feed and residual use was projected at 350 million bus, up 35 million bus from December and up 186 million bus, or 113%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bus, up 2 million bus from December but down 1 million bus from 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 1,375 million bus, up 37 million bus from December and up 193 million bus, or 16%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,050 million bus, unchanged from December and also equal to the estimated 2011-12 outgo.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,425 million bus, up 37 million bus from December and up 194 million bus, or 9%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The average price of wheat was projected to range from $7.65@8.15 a bu in 2012-13, down from $7.70@8.30 projected as the average in December.

U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 289 million bus, up 15 million bus from December but down 28 million bus from 317 million bus in 2012. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 168 million bus, down 47 million bus from December and down 17 million bus from 185 million bus in 2012.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 170 million bus, down 5 million bus from December but up 19 million bus from 151 million bus in 2012. White wheat carryover was projected at 52 million bus, up 1 million bus from December but down 12 million bus from 2012.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 37 million bus, down 2 million bus from December but up 12 million bus from 25 million bus in 2012.

Corn production in 2012 was estimated at 10,780 million bus, up 55 million bus from 10,725 million bus forecast in December but down 13% from 12,360 million bus in 2011.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 602 million bus, down 45 million bus, or 7%, from December and down 387 million bus, or 39%, from 989 million bus in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 667 million bus.

U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 100 million bus, unchanged from December but up 71 million bus from 29 million bus in 2011-12. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 11,869 million bus, up 55 million bus from 11,814 million bus in December but down 1,647 million bus, or 12%, from 13,516 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,450 million bus, up 300 million bus, or 7%, from December but down 98 million bus from 4,548 million bus in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,867 million bus, unchanged from December (including corn for ethanol at 4,500 million bus and food and seed use at 1,367 million bus), but down 570 million bus, or 9%, from 6,437 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bus for ethanol and 1,426 million bus for food and seed).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 950 million bus, down 200 million bus, or 17%, from 1,150 million bus in December and down 593 million bus, or 38%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.80@8 a bu in 2012-13, unchanged from December.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 135 million bus, up 5 million bus from December but down 34 million bus, or 20%, from 169 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was equal to the average trade expectation.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bus, up 44 million bus, or 1%, from 2,971 million forecast in December but down 79 million bus, or 3%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from December at 20 million bus, but were up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,204 million bus, up 44 million bus from 3,160 million bus in December but down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected 2012-13 U.S. soybean crush was raised 35 million bus from December to 1,605 million bus, but still was down 98 million bus, or 6%, from 1,703 million bus crushed in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bus, unchanged from December but down 17 million bus, or 1%, from 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use was projected at 3,070 million bus, up 39 million bus from December, but down 85 million bus from 3,155 million bus as the estimated use in 2011-12.

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.50@15 a bu, down from $13.55@15.55 a bu projected in December but up from $12.50 a bu in 2011-12.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 176.64 million tonnes, down 310,000 tonnes from December and down 19.14 million tonnes, or 10%, from 195.78 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Global corn ending stocks were projected at 115.99 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 1.62 million tonnes from December and down 15.8 million tonnes, or 12%, from 131.79 million tonnes a year earlier.

Soybean carryover for 2012-13 globally was projected at 59.46 million tonnes, down 470,000 tonnes from December but up 4.36 million tonnes from 55.10 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Brazilian 2012-13 soybean production was forecast at a record 82.50 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from December and up 16 million tonnes, or 24%, from 66.5 million tonnes a year earlier. Brazil’s soybean production was forecast to surpass that of the United States, estimated at 82.06 million tonnes for 2012-13, for the first time ever.

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