U.S. 2012-13 sugar supply, carryover raised again

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2013, at 2,267,000 short tons, raw value, up 65,000 tons, or 3%, from 2,202,000 tons as the January projection and up 282,000 tons, or 14%, from 1,985,000 tons estimated for 2012.

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was projected at 19.3%, up from 18.7% projected in January and above 17.2% estimated for 2011-12. Stocks-to-use ratios for both years are above the top end of the U.S.D.A.’s “target” range.

U.S. beet sugar production for 2012-13 was forecast at 5,300,000 tons, up 100,000 tons, or 2%, from January and up 400,000 tons, or 8%, from 4,900,000 tons in 2011-12. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,920,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from January and up 332,000 tons, or 9%, from 3,588,000 tons a year earlier. Total U.S. sugar production was forecast at 9,220,000 tons, up 150,000 tons, or about 2%, from January and up 732,000 tons, or about 9%, from 8,488,000 tons in 2011-12.

Projected 2012-13 imports were estimated at 2,827,000 tons, down 85,000 tons from January and down 804,000 tons, or 22%, from 3,631,000 tons in 2011-12. The reduction was in tariff rate quota imports, forecast at 1,204,000 tons in 2012-13, down 85,000 tons from the January forecast and down 679,000 tons, or 36%, from 1,883,000 tons a year earlier.

Forecast imports of sugar from Mexico in 2012-13 were unchanged from January at 1,388,000 tons but were up 317,000 tons, or 30%, from 1,071,000 tons last year.

“Louisiana cane sugar and U.S. beet sugar production estimates are increased in line with reports from processors, and increased shortfall in filling the tariff rate quota accounts for reduced imports,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Total U.S. sugar supply in 2012-13 was projected at 14,032,000 tons, up 65,000 tons from January and up 535,000 tons, or 4%, from 13,497,000 tons in 2011-12.

All projected 2012-13 sugar use numbers were unchanged from January. Total domestic deliveries were projected at 11,590,000 tons, unchanged from January but up 347,000 tons, or 3%, from 11,243,000 tons in 2011-12. Total sugar use in 2012-13 was projected at 11,765,000 tons, also unchanged from January but up 253,000 tons, or 2%, from 11,512,000 tons the previous year.

There were no changes in U.S.D.A. supply and use estimates for 2011-12.

For Mexico, the U.S.D.A. did not revise any 2011-12 or 2012-13 supply or use estimates in the February report.
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