U.S. 2012-13 sugar supply, carryover raised again

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2013, at 2,358,000 short tons, raw value, up 91,000 tons, or 4%, from 2,267,000 tons as the February projection and up 373,000 tons, or 19%, from 1,985,000 tons in 2012.

The increase in ending stocks was the result of sharply higher projected imports of sugar from Mexico more than offsetting reduced U.S. cane sugar production and lower tariff rate quota imports in 2012-13.

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was projected at 20%, up from 19.3% projected in February, above 17.2% estimated for 2011-12 and the highest since 2000-2001. Stocks-to-use ratios for both years are well above the top end of the U.S.D.A.’s “target” range near 15%.

U.S. beet sugar production for 2012-13 was forecast at 5,300,000 tons, unchanged from February but up 400,000 tons, or 8%, from 4,900,000 tons in 2011-12. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,860,000 tons, down 60,000 tons from February due to a like decrease in production in Florida, but up 272,000 tons, or 8%, from 3,588,000 tons a year earlier. Total U.S. sugar production was forecast at 9,160,000 tons, down 60,000 tons from February but up 672,000 tons, or about 8%, from 8,488,000 tons in 2011-12.

Projected 2012-13 imports were estimated at 2,978,000 tons, up 151,000 tons, or 5%, from 2,827,000 tons in February but down 653,000 tons, or 18%, from 3,631,000 tons in 2011-12. Tariff rate quota imports were projected at 1,154,000 tons, down 50,000 tons from February and down 729,000 tons, or 39%, from 1,883,000 tons a year earlier.

Forecast imports of sugar from Mexico in 2012-13 were raised 14% from February to 1,589,000 tons, and were up 518,000 tons, or 48%, from 1,071,000 tons last year.

Total U.S. sugar supply in 2012-13 was projected at 14,123,000 tons, up 91,000 tons from February and up 626,000 tons, or 5%, from 13,497,000 tons in 2011-12.

All projected 2012-13 sugar use numbers were unchanged from February. Total domestic deliveries were projected at 11,590,000 tons, unchanged from February but up 347,000 tons, or 3%, from 11,243,000 tons in 2011-12. Total sugar use in 2012-13 was projected at 11,765,000 tons, also unchanged from February but up 253,000 tons, or 2%, from 11,512,000 tons the previous year.

There were no changes in U.S.D.A. supply and use estimates for 2011-12 for either the United States or Mexico.

For 2012-13 the U.S.D.A. projected sugar production in Mexico at 5,890,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 222,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 5,668,000 tonnes projected in February and up 842,000 tonnes, or 17%, from 5,048,000 tonnes in 2011-12. Imports for 2012-13 were unchanged from February at 112,000 tonnes, and domestic use was unchanged at 4,540,000 tonnes. Exports were projected at 1,370,000 tonnes, up 172,000 tonnes, or 14%, from 1,198,000 tonnes projected in February and up 441,000 tonnes, or 47%, from 929,000 tonnes in 2011-12. Ending stocks in Mexico were raised 50,000 tonnes from February to 1,050,000 tonnes and were up 92,000 tonnes, or 10%, from 958,000 tonnes in 2011-12.
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