U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 4% from February

by Ron Sterk
Share This:

WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 716 million bus, up 25 million bus, or about 4%, from 691 million bus as the February projection due to a projected 25-million-bu decrease in 2012-13 exports, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Continuing strong competition, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Projected exports for hard red winter wheat are lowered 25 million bus.” The U.S.D.A. also lowered projected white wheat exports by 10 million bus and hard red spring by 5 million bus, but raised soft red winter exports by 15 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was slightly above the average expected by the trade that was near 713 million bus. Wheat futures prices traded mostly lower in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis immediately after the report.

Except for the decrease in exports, other projected supply and use numbers were unchanged for 2012-13. The average price of wheat was projected at $7.65@7.95 a bu, down from $7.70@8.10 projected in February but still above $7.24 in 2011-12.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from February and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from February at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus, unchanged from February but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

Feed and residual use was projected at 375 million bus, unchanged from February but up 211 million bus, or 129%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bus, unchanged from February but down 1 million bus from 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from February but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12.

Total domestic use was projected at 1,400 million bus, unchanged from February and up 218 million bus, or 18%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,025 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 2%, from both February and 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,425 million bus, down 25 million bus from 2,450 million bus in February but up 194 million bus, or 9%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 332 million bus, up 28 million bus from February and up 15 million bus from 317 million bus in 2012. Exports were projected at 400 million bus, down 25 million bus from February, with total supply, including imports, up 3 million bus at 1,339 million bus.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 118 million bus, down 15 million bus from February and down 67 million bus from 185 million bus in 2012. Exports were projected at 200 million bus, up 15 million bus from last year.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 180 million bus, up 5 million bus from February and up 29 million bus from 151 million bus in 2012. Exports were projected at 225 million bus, down 5 million bus from February.

White wheat carryover was projected at 51 million bus, up 9 million bus from February but down 13 million bus from 2012. Exports were projected at 175 million bus, down 10 million bus from February, and total supply was reduced 1 million bus to 331 million bus.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 35 million bus, down 2 million bus from February but up 10 million bus from 25 million bus in 2012. Exports were unchanged from February but total supply was reduced 2 million bus to 148 million bus for 2012-13.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 632 million bus, unchanged from February but down 357 million bus, or 36%, from 989 million bus in 2012, the U.S.D.A. said.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was below the average of trade expectations of 649 million bus. Corn futures traded slightly higher after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the U.S.D.A. data.

U.S. corn imports in 2012-13 were projected at 125 million bus, up 25 million bus from February and up 96 million bus from 29 million bus in 2011-12. U.S. corn production in 2012 was unchanged from February at 10,780 million bus, but down 13% from 12,360 million bus in 2011. Total supply was projected at 11,894 million bus, also up 25 million bus from February but down 1,622 million bus, or 12%, from 13,516 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,550 million bus, up 100 million bus from February and up 2 million bus from 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,887 million bus, unchanged from February (including corn for ethanol unchanged at 4,500 million bus and food and seed use at 1,387 million bus), but down 550 million bus, or 9%, from 6,437 million bus in 2011-12 (which included 5,011 million bus for ethanol and 1,426 million bus for food and seed).

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 825 million bus, down 75 million bus, or 8%, from 900 million bus in February and down 718 million bus, or 47%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,262 million bus, up 25 million bus from 11,237 million bus as the February forecast but down 1,265 million bus, or 10%, from 12,527 million bus in 2011-12.

“Corn exports are lowered 75 million bus based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bus with continued expansion in poultry production.”

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.75@7.45 a bu in 2012-13, compared with $6.75@7.65 projected in February and $6.22 in 2011-12.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bus, unchanged from February but down 44 million bus, or 26%, from 169 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was slightly above the average trade expectation that was near 122 million bus. Soybean futures prices were lower after the report.

All projections for 2012-13 U.S. soybean supply and use were unchanged from the U.S.D.A.’s February WASDE. The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.80@14.80 a bu, compared with $13.55@15.05 projected in February and above the $12.50 average in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bus, unchanged from February but down 79 million bus, or 3%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011.

Soybean imports in 2012-13 were unchanged from February at 20 million bus, but up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,204 million bus, unchanged from February but down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1,615 million bus, unchanged from February but still down 88 million bus, or 5%, from 1,703 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,345 million bus, unchanged from February but down 17 million bus from 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.

Total soybean use was projected at 3,080 million bus, unchanged from February but down 75 million bus, or 2%, from 3,155 million bus in 2011-12.
Add a Comment
We welcome your thoughtful comments. Please comply with our Community rules.








The views expressed in the comments section of Baking Business News do not reflect those of Baking Business News or its parent company, Sosland Publishing Co., Kansas City, Mo. Concern regarding a specific comment may be registered with the Editor by clicking the Report Abuse link.