U.S.D.A. reduces 2012-13 sugar carryover projection by 9%

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2013, at 2,136,000 short tons, raw value, down 222,000 tons, or 9%, from 2,358,000 tons as the March projection but up 151,000 tons, or 8%, from 1,985,000 tons in 2012.

The decrease in ending stocks was the result of projected lower domestic beet sugar production and increased food use of sugar more than offsetting increased imports from Mexico and slightly higher domestic cane sugar production.

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was projected at 18%, down from 20% projected in March but above 17.2% estimated for 2011-12. Stocks-to-use ratios for both years were above the U.S.D.A.’s “target” ratio that is near 15%.

U.S. beet sugar production for 2012-13 was forecast at 5,100,000 tons, down 200,000 tons, or 4%, from March but up 200,000 tons, or 4%, from 4,900,000 tons in 2011-12. U.S. cane sugar production was projected at 3,880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from March due to a likely increase in production in Florida, and up 292,000 tons, or 8%, from 3,588,000 tons a year earlier. Total U.S. sugar production was forecast at 8,980,000 tons, down 180,000 tons, or 2%, from March but up 492,000 tons, or about 6%, from 8,488,000 tons in 2011-12.

U.S. imports in 2012-13 were projected at 3,036,000 tons, up 58,000 tons, or 2%, from 2,978,000 tons in March but down 595,000 tons, or 16%, from 3,631,000 tons in 2011-12. Tariff rate quota imports were projected at 1,154,000 tons, unchanged from March but down 729,000 tons, or 39%, from 1,883,000 tons a year earlier.

Forecast imports of sugar from Mexico in 2012-13 were raised 58,000 tons, or 4%, from March to 1,647,000 tons, and were up 576,000 tons, or 54%, from 1,071,000 tons last year.

Total U.S. sugar supply in 2012-13 was projected at 14,001,000 tons, down 122,000 tons from March but up 504,000 tons, or 4%, from 13,497,000 tons in 2011-12.

Total domestic sugar deliveries were projected at 11,690,000 tons in 2012-13, up 100,000 tons, or 1%, from March and up 447,000 tons, or 4%, from 11,243,000 tons in 2011-12. Sugar deliveries for food were projected at 11,480,000 tons, up 100,000 tons from March and up 410,000 tons, or 4%, from 11,070,000 tons a year earlier. U.S. sugar exports in 2012-13 were unchanged from March at 175,000 tons, but down 94,000 tons, or 32%, from 269,000 tons in 2011-12. Total sugar use in 2012-13 was projected at 11,865,000 tons, also up 100,000 tons from March and up 353,000 tons, or 3%, from 11,512,000 tons the previous year.

There were no changes in U.S.D.A. U.S. supply and use estimates for 2011-12.

For 2012-13 the U.S.D.A. projected sugar production in Mexico at 6,117,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 227,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 5,890,000 tonnes projected in March and up 1,069,000 tonnes, or 21%, from 5,048,000 tonnes in 2011-12. Imports for 2012-13 were unchanged from March at 112,000 tonnes, and domestic use was unchanged at 4,540,000 tonnes. Exports were projected at 1,520,000 tonnes, up 150,000 tonnes, or 11%, from 1,370,000 tonnes projected in March and up 591,000 tonnes, or 64%, from 929,000 tonnes in 2011-12. Ending stocks in Mexico were raised 85,000 tonnes from March to 1,135,000 tonnes and were up 169,000 tonnes, or 17%, from an upwardly revised 966,000 tonnes in 2011-12.
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