U.S. 2013 wheat carryover up 2% from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 731 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 2%, from 716 million bus as the March projection due to a projected 15-million-bu decrease in 2012-13 feed and residual use more than offsetting a slight increase in seed use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Feed and residual use for 2012-13 is projected 15 million bus lower reflecting lower-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Feed and residual use is projected lower for hard red winter and hard red spring wheat, but declines are partly offset by higher expected feed and residual use for soft red winter and white wheat.”

The U.S.D.A. 2013 wheat carryover was on target with the average expected by the trade that was near 731 million bus. Old crop wheat futures prices traded about 15@20c a bu lower shortly after the report was released at 11:00 a.m. Central Time, although prices were down about 10c a bu prior to the report.

Projected exports and domestic food use of wheat were unchanged for 2012-13. The average price of wheat was projected at $7.70@7.90 a bu, narrowed from $7.65@7.95 a bu projected in March but well above $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 2,269 million bus in 2012, unchanged from March and up 270 million bus, or 14%, from 1,999 million bus in 2012. Imports were unchanged from March at 130 million bus but up 18 million bus from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,142 million bus, unchanged from March but up 168 million bus, or 6%, from 2,974 million bus in 2011-12.

Feed and residual use was projected at 360 million bus, down 15 million bus from 375 million bus projected in March but up 196 million bus, or 120%, from 164 million bus in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 76 million bus, up 1 million bus from March and unchanged from 2011-12.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bus, unchanged from March but up 9 million bus, or 1%, from 941 million bus in 2011-12.

Total domestic use was projected at 1,386 million bus, down 14 million bus from 1,400 million bus in March but up 204 million bus, or 17%, from 1,182 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1,025 million bus, unchanged from March but down 25 million bus, or  2%, from 1,050 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2,411 million bus, down 14 million bus from 2,425 million bus in March but up 180 million bus, or 8%, from 2,231 million bus last year.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 357 million bus, up 25 million bus from March and up 40 million bus from 317 million bus in 2012. Total supply was increased 6 million bus from March to 1,345 million bus, while domestic use was reduced 19 million bus to 588 million bus. Exports were unchanged at 400 million bus. Total use was projected at 988 million bus, down 19 million bus from March but up 139 million bus from 849 million bus in 2011-12.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 107 million bus, down 11 million bus from March and down 78 million bus from 185 million bus in 2012. Domestic use was projected at 318 million bus, up 11 million bus from March. Total supply was unchanged at 626 million bus, as were exports at 200 million bus.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 190 million bus, up 10 million bus from March and up 39 million bus from 151 million bus in 2012. Domestic use was projected at 282 million bus, down 10 million bus from March, while total supply was unchanged at 698 million bus and exports held steady at 225 million bus.

White wheat carryover was projected at 46 million bus, down 5 million bus from March and down 18 million bus from 2012. Domestic use was raised 5 million bus from March to 110 million bus, while total supply was unchanged at 331 million bus and exports also were unchanged at 175 million bus.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 30 million bus, down 5 million bus from March but up 5 million bus from 2012. Total supply was lowered 6 million bus to 142 million bus, while domestic use was unchanged at 88 million bus and exports held at 25 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 757 million bus, up 125 million bus, or 20%, from 632 million bus projected in March but down 232 million bus, or 23%, from 989 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 corn carryover number was well below the average of trade expectations of 824 million bus. Corn futures traded narrowly mixed after the 11:00 a.m. Central Time release of the U.S.D.A. data.

Total U.S. corn supply in 2012-13 was unchanged from March at 11,894 million bus, including beginning stocks at 989 million bus, imports at 125 million bus and 2012 production at 10,780 million bus.

Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,400 million bus, down 150 million bus, or 3%, from 4,550 million bus in projected in March and down 145 millon bus from a slightly revised 4,545 million bus in 2011-12.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,937 million bus, up 50 million bu from 5,887 million bus in March due to a 50-million-bu increase in projected use of corn for ethanol and by-products at 4,550 million bus. Projected use of corn for food and seed was unchanged at 1,387 million bus.

U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 800 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 825 million bus in March and down 743 million bus, or 48%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.

Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,137 million bus, down 125 million bus from 11,262 million bus as the March forecast and down 1,390 million bus, or 11%, from 12,527 million bus in 2011-12.

“Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bus reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half of the marketing year,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Domestic corn use for 2012-13 is projected 100 million bus lower as a 50-million-bu increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance. Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year. Corn exports for 2012-13 are projected 25 million bus lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine.”

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.65@7.15 a bu in 2012-13, down from $6.75@7.45 projected in March but still above $6.22 a bu in 2011-12 and $5.18 a bu in 2010-11.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bus, unchanged from March but down 44 million bus, or 26%, from 169 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 137 million bus, but soy complex futures still traded modestly lower after the report.

All 2012-13 soybean supply projections were unchanged from March. U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bus, down 79 million bus, or 3%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011. Soybean imports in 2012-13 were at 20 million bus, up 4 million bus from 2011-12. Total supply was projected at 3,204 million bus, down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1,635 million bus, up 20 million bus from March but still down 68 million bus, or 4%, from 1,703 million bus in 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,350 million bus, up 5 million bus from March but down 12 million bus from 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.

Soybean residual use was projected a 5 million bus, down 25 million bus from March but up 4 million bus from 2011-12.

Total soybean use was projected at 3,080 million bus, unchanged from March but down 75 million bus, or 2%, from 3,155 million bus in 2011-12.

 “Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 grain Stocks report,” the U.S.D.A. said. The increase in projected crush “reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.”

The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.80@14.80 a bu, unchanged from March but well above the $12.50 a bu average in 2011-12.

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