U.S.D.A. lowers 2010 wheat crop estimate to 2,224 million bus

BakingBusiness.com, October 5, 2010
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Small Grains 2010 Summary issued Sept. 30, estimated wheat production in the United States this year at 2,223,523,000 bus, down 2% from 2,264,928,000 bus as its August forecast but up slightly from 2,218,061,000 bus in 2009. The U.S.D.A. estimate was below the average of pre-report trade estimates near 2,267 million bus. The recent five-year average U.S. wheat outturn was 2,136 million bus.

Average wheat yield was estimated at a record 46.7 bus an acre, down 0.2 bu from the August forecast but up 2.2 bus per acre from 2009 and 1.8 bus per acre higher than the previous record set in 2008. Harvested area was estimated at 47,657,000 acres, down 1% from the August estimate and down 4% from 49,893,000 acres a year ago.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was estimated at 626,937,000 bus, down 1% from the August forecast but up 7% from 584,411,000 bus a year ago. It was the third-largest other-spring wheat crop on record. The average other-spring wheat yield was estimated at a record 46.9 bus an acre, up 1.8 bus from 2009. Harvested area was estimated at 13,379,000 acres, up 3% from 12,955,000 acres a year ago.

Production of hard red spring wheat was estimated at 580,555,000 bus, down 2% from the August forecast but up 6% from 547,933,000 bus in 2009. Hard white spring wheat production was estimated at 9,355,000 bus, up 12% from August and up 19% from 7,865,000 bus a year ago. Soft white spring wheat production was 37,027,000 bus, up 15% from August and up 29% from 28,613,000 bus in 2009.

The U.S.D.A. estimated winter wheat production at 1,485,236,000 bus, down 3% from the August estimate and down 3% from 1,524,608,000 bus in 2009. Average winter wheat yield was 46.8 bus an acre, up 2.6 bus from 44.2 bus per acre last year and the fourth highest on record. Harvested area was 31,749,000 acres, down 1% from the August estimate and down 8% from 34,510,000 acres a year ago.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 1,018,337,000 bus, down 1% from August but up 11% from 919,939,000 bus in 2009. Soft red winter production was 237,804,000 bus, down 9% from August and down 41% from 403,984,000 bus in 2009. It was the smallest soft red crop since 188,920,000 bus in 1978. Hard white winter wheat production was 13,496,000 bus, down 28% from the August estimate and down 26% from 18,248,000 bus in 2009. Soft white winter wheat production was 215,599,000 bus, up less than 1% from the August estimate and up 18% from 182,437,000 bus a year ago.

Durum production in 2010 was estimated at 111,350,000 bus, up 2% from the August forecast and up 2% from 109,042,000 bus in 2009. Durum average yield was estimated at 44 bus an acre, up 2 bus from the August forecast but down 0.9 bu from a record 44.9 bus per acre in 2009.


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