U.S.D.A. lowers corn and soybean carryover forecasts

BakingBusiness.com, November 16, 2010
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 9 projected the carryover of corn in the United States on Sept. 1, 2011, at 827 million bus, down 75 million bus from the October forecast and down 881 million bus, or 52%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010. The 2011 corn carryover was projected to be the lowest since 426 million bus in 1996 and compared with the recent high carryover of 2,114 million bus in 2005.

U.S. corn production in 2010 was estimated at 12,540 million bus, down 1% from October and down 570 million bus, or 4%, from a record 13,110 million bus in 2009. Production was lowered because of a further reduction in the estimated average yield to 154.3 bus per acre from 155.8 bus per acre as the October forecast and 162.5 bus per acre as the September forecast. The 2009 yield was 164.7 bus per acre. Total corn supply in 2010-11 was projected at 14,257 million bus, down 125 million bus from the October forecast and down 535 million bus, or 4%, from 14,792 million bus in 2009-10.

Total domestic corn disappearance in 2010-11 was projected at 11,480 million bus, unchanged from October but up 382 million bus, or 3%, from 11,098 million bus in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use of corn in 2010-11 was projected at 5,300 million bus, down 100 million bus from October but up 141 million bus, or 3%, from 5,159 million bus in the prior year. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,180 million bus, up 100 million bus from October and up 242 million bus, or 4%, from 5,938 million bus in 2009-10. Included in the above was projected corn use for ethanol in 2010-11 at 4,800 million bus, up 100 million bus from October and up 232 million bus, or 5%, from 4,568 million bus in the previous year.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, down 50 million bus from October and down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, at 185 million bus, down 80 million bus from the October forecast but up 35 million bus, or 23%, from 151 million bus in 2010.

U.S. soybean production was forecast at a record 3,375 million bus, down 33 million bus from the October projection but up 16 million bus from 3,359 million bus in 2009. The reduction was tied to a lower forecast average yield at 43.9 bus per acre compared with 44.4 bus per acre as the October projection. Total soybean supply in 2010-11 was projected at 3,536 million bus, down 33 million bus from the October forecast but up 24 million bus from 3,512 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use of U.S. soybeans in 2010-11 was projected at 3,351 million bus, up 46 million bus from October but down 10 million bus from 3,361 million bus in 2009-10. Crushings were projected at 1,665 million bus, unchanged from October but down 87 million bus, or 5%, from 1,752 million bus in 2009-10. Exports were projected at a record 1,570 million bus, up 50 million bus from October and up 69 million bus, or 5%, from 1,501 million bus in 2009-10. Residual use was projected at 29 million bus, down 3 million bus from October but up 11 million bus from 2009-10. Seed use was projected unchanged from October at 88 million bus, which was down 2 million bus from 2009-10.


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