U.S.D.A. reduces wheat carryover forecast to 950 million bus

BakingBusiness.com, April 13, 2010
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture on April 9 projected the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2010, at 950 million bus, down 51 million bus from the March forecast, up 45% from 657 million bus in 2009 and still the largest carryover since 1,261 million bus in 1988. The reduction in the forecast was attributed to higher projections for wheat exports, feed and residual use and seed use of wheat in 2009-10.

The 2009 wheat production estimate was unchanged at 2,216 million bus, down 11% from 2,499 million bus in 2008. Wheat imports in 2009-10 were projected at 115 million bus, unchanged from March but down 12 million bus from 2008-09. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected unchanged at 2,988 million bus, up 56 million bus from the previous year.

Domestic wheat disappearance was projected at 1,173 million bus, up 11 million bus from March but down 7% from 1,260 million bus in 2008-09. Food use of wheat was projected at 920 million bus, unchanged from March and down 7 million bus from 2008-09. Feed and residual use of wheat was forecast at 180 million bus, up 10 million bus from March but down 78 million bus from the previous year. Seed use was forecast at 73 million bus, up 1 million bus from March but down 2 million bus from a year ago. Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 865 million bus, up 40 million bus from March, down 15% from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09 and the lowest since 2002-03. The 2010 carryover of hard winter wheat was projected at 400 million bus (down 20 million bus from March), hard spring at 250 million bus (down 27 million), soft red at 211 million bus (up 4 million), white at 52 million bus (unchanged) and durum at 37 million bus (down 8 million).

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