Wheat tour forecasts Kansas crop at 333.5 million bus

BakingBusiness.com, May 11, 2010
by Jay Sjerven

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Participants in the Wheat Quality Council’s 2010 hard red winter wheat tour, on the basis of 455 field visits across the state, projected average wheat yield in Kansas this year at 40.7 bus per acre compared with a tour estimate of 40.8 bus per acre last year and the actual 2009 Kansas wheat yield of 42 bus per acre. The recent 10-year average Kansas wheat yield was 38.2 bus per acre with a high of 48 bus per acre in 2003 and a low of 32 bus per acre in 2006. Fifty-six tour members assembled at the Kansas City Board of Trade on May 6 offered wheat production estimates for the state. The average estimate was 333.5 million bus compared with last year’s tour estimate of 333.3 million bus and actual 2009 Kansas wheat production of 369.6 million bus. Generally, crop prospects were seen as very good. Disease pressure was minimal. Still, participants indicated the crop seemed to fall short of expectations when measured against the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly condition ratings, the most recent of which was 70% good to excellent for the state.

Separately, an Oklahoma wheat tour projected that state’s wheat production at 126.2 million bus compared with 77 million bus in 2009. The tour projected harvested area at 4,249,000 acres, up from 3,500,000 acres last year, and projected average yield at 29.7 bus per acre, up from 22 bus per acre in 2009. The average yield forecast for Oklahoma wheat was not exceptional; in six of the past 10 years, average yield was higher than the wheat tour forecast for this year.

The Colorado Association of Wheat Growers forecast that state’s crop at 81 million bus compared with 38 million bus in 2009. Colorado growers forecast 2,250,000 harvested acres and an average yield of 36 bus per acre. It would be the largest Colorado crop since 1999.

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