The U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 9 forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on July 1, 2011, at 1,093 million bus, up 102 million bus from the 991 million bus forecast in June and up 120 million bus, or 12%, from 973 million bus in 2010. The carryover would be the largest since 1,261 million bus in 1988. The projection was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at 1,033 million bus.
U.S. wheat production in 2010 was projected at 2,216 million bus, up 7% from the June forecast and even with a year earlier. U.S. wheat imports in 2010-11 were projected at 100 million bus, down 10 million bus from the June forecast and down 15 million bus from the previous year. Total wheat supply in the current year was projected at 3,289 million bus, up 182 million bus from the June forecast and up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2,988 million bus in 2009-10.
U.S. wheat exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,000 million bus, up 100 million bus from the June forecast and up 135 million bus, or 16%, from 865 million bus in 2009-10.
The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from June but up 20 million bus from 920 million bus in 2009-10. Seed use was projected at 76 million bus, unchanged from June but up 6 million bus from the previous year. Feed and residual use of wheat was projected at 180 million bus, down 20 million bus from the June forecast but up 21 million bus, or 13%, from 159 million bus in 2009-10.
Total wheat use in 2010-11 was projected at 2,196 million bus, up 80 million bus from the June forecast and up 182 million bus, or 9%, from 2,014 million bus in 2009-10.
In its first supply-and-demand forecasts by wheat class of the season, the U.S.D.A. projected the 2011 hard winter wheat carryover at 476 million bus, up 91 million bus, or 24%, from 385 million bus in 2010. The soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 162 million bus, down 79 million bus, or 33%, from 241 million bus this year. The hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 333 million bus, up 99 million bus, or 42%, from 234 million bus in 2010. The white wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bus, up 9 million bus, or 11%, from 79 million bus in 2010. And the durum carryover was projected at 34 million bus, down 1 million bus from 2010.
Affirming production losses in Canada, the European Union and the former Soviet Union would more than offset production increases expected in the United States and China, the U.S.D.A. lowered its forecast for world wheat ending stocks in 2010-11 to 187.05 million tonnes, down 6.88 million tonnes from June and down 5.97 million tonnes, or 3%, from 193.02 million tonnes in 2009-10.