With July increase, U.S.D.A. sees billion-bushel wheat carryover

BakingBusiness.com, July 13, 2010
by Editorial Staff

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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 1,093 million bus, up 102 million bus, or 10%, from 991 million bus forecast in June and up 120 million bus, or 12%, from 973 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. carryover was above the average pre-report trade expectations for both years. If realized, it would mark the first time in 33 years since the U.S. wheat carryover exceeded 1 billion bus. The 1988 carryover was 1,261 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,216 million bus for 2010-11, up 149 million bus, or 7%, from 2,067 million bus in June and even with a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3,289 million bus for 2010-11, up 182 million bus, or 6%, from June and up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2,988 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1,000 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 11%, from June and up 135 million bus, or 16%, from 865 million bus in 2009-10.

Total use was projected at 2,196 million bus, up 80 million bus, or 4%, from June and up 182 million bus, or 4%, from 2,014 million bus in 2009-10. Domestic food use was projected at 940 million bus, unchanged from June but up 20 million bus from 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. is forecasting an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 49.7%, up from 48% in 2010 and 29% in 2009.

Despite the carryover boost, the average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4.20@5 a bus, compared with $4@4.80 in June and $4.87 estimated in 2009-10.

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