U.S.D.A. revises 2011 U.S. all wheat crop down 3% from August, down 9% from 2010
BakingBusiness.com, October 4, 2011
by Ron Sterk

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U.S. 2011 all wheat production was estimated at 2,008,039,000 bus, down 68,495,000 bus, or 3%, from 2,076,534,000 bus forecast in August and down 198,877,000 bus, or 9%, from 2,206,916,000 bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary 2011.

The U.S.D.A. estimated Sept. 1, 2011, wheat stocks in all positions at 2,150 million bus, down 12% from a year ago.

The U.S.D.A. all wheat production number was below the average of pre-report trade estimates near 2,044 million bus, but the Sept. 1 wheat stocks number was above the trade average of 2,046 million bus. Coupled with a Sept. 1 U.S.D.A. corn stocks estimate of 1,128 million bus, well above the trade average expectation of 962 million bus, wheat futures tum-bled Friday along with corn and soybean contracts.

The U.S.D.A. estimated the average all wheat yield in 2011 at 43.9 bus an acre, down 1.3 bus from 45.2 bus an acre in August and down 2.4 bus from a record high 46.3 bus an acre in 2010. All wheat area was estimated at 45,715,000 acres, down 209,000 acres from August and down 1,904,000 acres, or 4%, from 2010.

Production of spring wheat other than durum was estimated at 462,473,000 bus, down 59,502,000 bus, or 11%, from 521,975,000 bus forecast in August, and down 153,502,000 bus, or 25%, from 615,975,000 bus a year ago. The average yield was forecast at 38.3 bus an acre, down 4.2 bus from 42.5 bus in August and down 7.8 bus from 46.1 bus in 2010.

Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 405,287,000 bus, down 69,253,000 bus, or 15%, from 474,540,000 bus in August and down 164,688,000 bus, or 29%, from 569,975,000 bus in 2010.

Durum outturn was estimated at 51,889,000 bus, down 5,241,000 bus, or 9%, from 57,130,000 bus forecast in August, down 54,191,000 bus, or 51%, from 106,080,000 bus in 2010, and the lowest outturn since 1988. Durum average yield was estimated at 39.3 bus an acre, down 3.1 bus from 42.4 bus an acre in August and down 2.8 bus from 42.1 bus an acre in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. durum

number was below the average trade expectation of 54 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. est-

imated winter wheat

output at 1,493,677,000

bus, down 3,752,000 bus from 1,497,429,000 bus in August but up 8,816,000 bus, or 0.6%, from 1,484,861,000 bus in 2010. The U.S.D.A.

estimated winter wheat

yield at 46.2 bus an acre, down 0.1 bus from 46.3 bus in August and down 0.6 bus from 46.8 bus an acre in 2010.

Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at 780,089,000 bus, down 14,299,000 bus, or 2%, from 794,388,000 bus in August and down 238,248,000 bus, or 23%, from 1,018,337,000 bus in 2010.

Soft red winter production was estimated at 457,535,000 bus, up 5,554,000 bus, or 1%, from 451,981,000 bus in August and up 220,106,000 bus, or 93%, from 237,429,000 bus in 2010.

White winter wheat outturn was estimated at 256,053,000 bus, up 4,993,000 bus, or 2%, from 251,060,000 bus in August and up 26,958,000 bus, or 12%, from 229,095,000 bus in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. other spring wheat, winter wheat and hard red winter wheat numbers were below average pre-report trade estimates, but the soft red winter wheat and white winter wheat numbers were above trade expectations.

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