U.S.D.A. sees corn stocks rising and soybean stocks declining in 2011-12

BakingBusiness.com, May 17, 2011
by Jay Sjerven

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In its initial 2011-12 supply-and-demand forecasts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast record corn production and growing corn stocks in the upcoming year but declining soybean production and stocks.

The U.S.D.A. on May 11 projected the U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, at 900 million bus, up 23% from a forecast 730 million bus in 2011.

The department projected 2011 U.S. corn production at a record 13,505 million bus, up 8.5% from 12,447 million bus in 2010. U.S. corn imports in 2011-12 were forecast at 20 million bus, down 5 million bus from the forecast for the current year. The U.S. corn supply in 2011-12 was projected at 14,255 million bus, up 75 million bus from 14,180 million bus in the current year but down 519 million bus, or 4%, from 14,774 million bus in 2009-10.

Domestic corn use in the United States in 2011-12 was projected at 11,555 million bus, up 5 million bus from 2010-11. Feed and residual use of corn in 2011-12 was projected at 5,100 million bus, down 50 million bus from 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use for the upcoming year was projected at 6,455 million bus, up 55 million bus from the forecast for 2010-11, including use for producing ethanol and its byproducts in 2011-12 forecast at 5,050 million bus, up 50 million bus from the projection for the current year.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,800 million bus, down 100 million bus from 2010-11.

Total corn disappearance in 2011-12 was projected at 13,355 million bus, down about 1% from a forecast 13,450 million bus in the current year.

The 2011-12 corn ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected to remain tight at 6.7%, up from only 5.4% forecast for this year but well below 13% in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

The average price of corn in 2011-12 was projected at a record $5.50@6.50 a bu, up from $5.10@5.40 forecast for the current year, $3.55 in 2009-10 and $4.06 in 2008-09.

The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 160 million bus, down 6% from a forecast 170 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. projected 2011 U.S. soybean production at 3,285 million bus, down 1% from 3,329 million bus in 2010.

The U.S. soybean supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,470 million bus, down 25 million bus from a forecast 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

The domestic soybean crush in 2011-12 was projected at 1,655 million bus, up 5 million bus from the forecast for 2010-11. Seed use in 2011-12 was projected at 90 million bus, up 1 million bus from the current year. Residual use was projected at 25 million bus, down 11 million bus from 2010-11.

Exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,540 million bus, down 10 million bus from the forecast for 2010-11.

Total soybean disappearance in 2011-12 was projected at 3,310 million bus, down 15 million bus from the forecast 3,325 million bus this year.

The average price of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected to range from $12 to $14 a bu compared with $11.40 as the estimate for this year, $9.59 in 2009-10 and $9.97 in 2008-09.


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