Spring wheat crop forecast 11% lower than 2010

BakingBusiness.com, July 19, 2011
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 12 forecast production of spring wheat other than durum in the United States this year at 550,660,000 bus, down 65,315,000 bus, or 11%, from 615,975,000 bus in 2010. The forecast was the department’s first survey-based projection of the season for spring wheat. If the forecast holds, the 2011 other-spring wheat crop would be the smallest since 548,004,000 bus in 2008 but would compare favorably with 538 million bus as the recent five-year average outturn. By class, hard red spring wheat production was projected at 504,364,000 bus, down 65,611,000 bus, or 12%, from 569,975,000 bus in 2010. The 2010 hard red spring wheat crop was the largest harvested since 630,650,000 tonnes in 1996. The recent five-year average hard red spring wheat outturn was around 502 million bus. Hard white spring wheat production was projected at 8,968,000 bus, down 288,000 bus, or 3%, from 9,256,000 bus a year ago. Soft white spring wheat production was projected at 37,328,000 bus, up 584,000 bus, or 2%, from 36,744,000 bus in 2010.

The U.S.D.A. forecast durum production in the United States in 2011 at 63,720,000 bus, down 43,460,000 bus, or 41%, from 107,180,000 bus in 2010. The durum crop was projected to be the smallest since 53,475,000 bus in 2006. With the exception of 2006, the durum crop for the current year was forecast to be the smallest since the drought year 1988. The recent five-year average durum outturn was around 85 million bus. The North Dakota durum crop was projected at 29,100,000 bus, which would be the state’s smallest outturn since 16,800,000 bus in 1961.

The U.S.D.A. forecast 2011 winter wheat production at 1,491,739,000 bus, up 3% from the June projection and up 6,503,000 bus from 1,485,236,000 bus in 2010. The soft red winter wheat crop was forecast at 457,670,000 bus, up 6% from the June forecast, up a whopping 92% from 237,804,000 bus in 2010 and compared with the recent five-year average outturn of around 399 million bus. The hard white winter wheat crop was forecast at 11,571,000 bus, down 14% from 13,496,000 bus in 2010. The soft white winter wheat crop was forecast at 231,248,000 bus, up 7% from 215,599,000 bus in 2010.

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