U.S.D.A. trims 2013 carryover forecasts for wheat and soybeans, corn unchanged
BakingBusiness.com, June 19, 2012
by Jay Sjerven

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 10 lowered its forecasts for 2012-13 U.S. wheat and soybean ending stocks while leaving unchanged its supply-and-demand outlook for corn.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2013, at 694 million bus, down 41 million bus from its May projection and down 34 million bus, or 5%, from 728 million bus in 2012. If the forecast is realized, the 2013 carryover would be the smallest since 657 million bus in 2009. The reduction in the carryover forecast resulted from a 40-million-bu drop in estimated 2012-13 beginning stocks and an 11-million-bu reduction in the forecast for all-wheat production in the current year to 2,234 million bus. Still, the wheat crop this year would be 12% larger than the 1,999 million bus harvested last year. Domestic disappearance of wheat was forecast at 1,238 million bus, down 10 million bus from the May outlook but up 39 million bus from 2011-12. U.S. wheat exports in 2012-13 were forecast at 1,150 million bus, unchanged from May and up 95 million bus, or 9%, from 1,055 million bus in the previous year.

The U.S. carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 140 million bus, down 5 million bus from the May projection and down 35 million bus, or 20%, from the forecast of 175 million bus for 2012. The 2013 carryover would be the smallest since 138 million bus in 2009 and would compare with the recent 10-year average carryover of 245 million bus. Compared with the May supply-and-demand forecasts, 2012-13 beginning stocks were lowered 35 million bus, crushings were lowered 10 million bus, to 1,645 million bus, and exports were lowered 20 million bus, to 1,485 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. left unchanged its corn supply-and-demand forecasts for 2012-13. The corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, was forecast at 1,881 million bus, up 1,030 million bus, or 121%, from 851 million bus as the forecast for 2012. The carryover would be the largest since 1,967 million bus in 2006 and would compare with the recent 10-year average corn carryover of 1,441 million bus. The 2012 carryover was forecast to be the smallest since 426 million bus in 1996.

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