U.S. wheat, corn, soybean carryover up from Dec.
U.S. wheat, corn, soybean carryover up from Dec.
BakingBusiness.com, January 12, 2009
by Ron Sterk

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised U.S. 2009 carryover projections from December for wheat, corn and soybeans and also raised world carryover for wheat and corn but lowered world soybean numbers.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2009, was projected at 655 million bus, up 32 million bus, or 5%, from 623 million bus in December and up 349 million bus, or 114%, from 306 million bus in 2008.

Total wheat supply in 2008-09 was projected at 2,915 million bus, unchanged from the December forecast and up 295 million bus, or 11%, from 2,620 million bus in 2007-08. Estimated wheat production was unchanged at 2,500 million bus, but up 433 million bus, or 21%, from 2,067 million bus in 2007.

Domestic wheat use in 2008-09 was projected at 1,260 million bus, down 32 million bus from December but up 210 million bus, or 20%, from 2007-08. Food use of wheat was projected at 950 million bus, unchanged from December but up 3 million bus from 2007-08. Seed use was projected at 80 million bus, down 2 million bus from December and down 8 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 230 million bus, down 30 million bus from December and compared with 15 million bus in 2007-08.

U.S. wheat exports in 2008-09 were projected at 1,000 million bus, unchanged from December but down 264 million bus, or 21%, from 1,264 million bus in 2007-08.

The average farm price of wheat in 2008-09 was forecast to fall within range of $6.50 to $6.90 a bu, up 10c from bottom end and down 10c from top end of December forecast range and compared with a record high of $6.48 in 2007-08 and $4.26 in 2006-07.

Global 2008-09 wheat production was projected at 682.86 million tonnes, down 1.12 million tonnes from December but up 12% from 610.19 million tonnes in 2007-08. The production decrease was due mostly to a projected 1-million-tonne decrease in Argentine wheat output. Ending stocks were projected at 148.36 million tonnes, up 1.01 million tonnes from December and up 24% from 119.37 million tonnes in 2007-08.

Projected U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was 1,790 million bus, up 316 million bus, or 21%, from 1,474 million bus in December and up 166 million bus, or 10%, from 1,624 million bus last year. Total U.S. corn supply in 2008-09 was projected at 13,740 million bus, up 81 million bus from December due to an estimated 81-milion-bu increase in 2008 corn production, to 12,101 million bus.

Total domestic corn use was projected at 10,200 million bus in 2008-09, down 185 million bus from December and down 102 million bus from 2007-08. Feed and residual use was projected at 5,300 million bus, down 50 million bus from December and down 638 million bus from last year. Food and seed use, at 1,300 million bus, was lowered 35 million bus from December and was down 37 million bus from 1,337 million bus in 2007-08. The U.S.D.A. reduced projected corn use to make ethanol to 3,600 million bus, down 100 million bus. But the number still was 574 million bus, or 19%, above 3,026 million bus in 2007-08.

"Ethanol corn use is lower 100 million bus as sustained negative ethanol production margins since early December have reduced incentives for ethanol output," the U.S.D.A. said.

Projected exports were reduced by 50 million bus from December, to 1,750 million bus, "based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date" and were down 686 million bus, or 28%, from 2,436 million bus in 2007-08, the U.S.D.A. said.

The average corn price was projected to range from $3.55@4.25 a bu in 2008-09, down 10c from December and compared with $4.20 a bu last year.

World 2008-09 corn production was projected at 791.04 million tonnes, up 5.14 million tonnes from December and nearly unchanged from 791.49 million tonnes in 2007-08. The increase was due to larger production numbers for China, Mexico, Russia, the European Union and the U.S. Ending stocks were projected at 136.03 million tonnes, up 12.2 million tonnes from December and up 7.81 million tonnes from 2007-08.

Projected carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2009, was 225 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 10%, from December and from 2008. Total supply was projected at 3,173 million bus, up 40 million bus from December due to a 38-million-bu increase in estimated production, raised to 2,959 million bus, and a 2-million-bu increase in imports, raised to 9 million bus.

Total use was projected at 2,948 million bus, up 21 million bus from December but down 108 million bus from 3,056 million bus in 2007-08. U.S. crushings were projected at 1,685 million bus, down 30 million bus from December and down 116 million bus from a year earlier. Projected exports were increased by 50 million bus from December, to 1,100 million bus, but were 61 million bus below the previous year.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.50@9.50 a bu in 2008-09, compared with $8.25@9.75 projected in December and $10.10 a bu in 2007-08.

Global 2008-09 soybean production was projected at 233.2 million tonnes, down 1.45 million tonnes from December but up 12.31 million tonnes from 2007-08. Ending stocks were projected at 53.94 million tonnes, down 250,000 tonnes from December but up 84,000 tonnes from 2007-08.

Global rice production was projected at a record 439.08 million tonnes, up 4.49 million tonnes from December and up 7.77 million tonnes from 431.31 million tonnes a year earlier. Ending stocks were projected at 82.66 million tonnes, up 1.81 million tonnes from December and up 3.97 million tonnes from 2007-08.


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