U.S. 2010 wheat, corn, soybean carryover higher
U.S. 2010 wheat, corn, soybean carryover higher
BakingBusiness.com, October 09, 2009
by Ron Sterk

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected larger 2010 U.S. carryover stocks of wheat, corn and soybeans compared with September projections in its Oct. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 864 million bus, up 121 million bus, or 16%, from the September projection of 743 million bus, up 207 million bus, or 32%, from 657 million bus in 2009, and a nine-year high.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,672 million bus, up 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,635 million bus projected in September and just 2 million bus under 1,674 million bus in 2009.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 230 million bus, up 10 million bus, or about 5%, from 220 million bus projected in September and up 92 million bus, or 67%, from 138 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover number for wheat was well above the average of pre-report trade estimates, for corn it was slightly below the average and for soybeans it was well below the average of expectations.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,220 million bus for 2009, up 36 million bus from September based on revisions reported in the U.S.D.A.’s Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary, but down 279 million bus, or 11%, from 2,500 million bus in 2008. Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,987 million bus, up 26 million bus from September as a 10-million-bu reduction in 2009 carryover partially offset the increase in production, and was 55 million bus above 2008-09 supply of 2,932 million bus. Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 900 million bus, down 50 million bus from September and down 115 million bus, or 11%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, unchanged from September and up 30 million bus, or 3%, from 925 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 190 million bus, down 45 million bus from September and down 70 million bus, or 27%, from 260 million bus last year. Seed use was projected at 78 million bus, unchanged from September but up 3 million bus from 2008-09.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.55@5.15 a bu, down 15c on the bottom end of the range and down 35c on the top end, from September, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 in 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 668.12 million tonnes, up 4.4 million tonnes from September but down 14.2 million tonnes from record large outturn of 682.32 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 186.73 million tonnes in 2009-10, up slightly from 186.61 million tonnes in September and up 19.97 million tonnes, or 12%, from 166.76 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 13,018 million bus, up slightly from 12,954 million bus in September, up 8% from 12,101 million bus in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at 14,702 million bus, up 42 million bus from 14,660 million bus in September and up 963 million bus, or 7%, from 13,739 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use of corn was projected at 5,400 million bus, up 50 million bus from 5,350 million bus in September and up 169 million bus, or 3%, from 5,231 million bus in 2008-09. Food and seed use was projected at 1,280 million bus, up 5 million bus from September and up 4 million bus from 1,276 million bus last year. Use of corn for ethanol was projected at 4,200 million bus in 2009-10, unchanged from September but up 500 million bus, or 14%, from 3,700 million bus in 2008-09. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2,150 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 2%, from September but up 292 million bus, or 16%, from 1,858 million bus in 2008-09.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.05@3.65 a bu in 2009-10, unchanged from September and compared with $4.06 in 2008-09 and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 792.54 million tonnes, down 1.52 million tonnes from 794.06 million tonnes in September but up 1.26 million tonnes from 791.28 million tonnes in 2008-09. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 136.25 million tonnes for 2009-10, down 2.87 million tonnes from 139.12 million tonnes in September and down 10.59 million tonnes, or 7%, from 146.84 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3,250 million bus, up slightly from 3,245 million bus forecast in September and up 10% from 2,967 million bus in 2008. Total 2009-10 soybean supply was projected at 3,398 million bus, up 32 million bus from 3,366 million bus in September and up 211 million bus, or 7%, from 3,187 million bus in 2008-09. Domestic crush was projected at 1,690 million bus, unchanged from September and up 28 million bus from 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from September at 94 million bus and down 1 million bus from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,305 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 2%, from 1,280 million bus in both September and in 2008-09.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8@10 a bu in 2009-10, down 10c on each side of the range from September, and compared with $9.97 in 2008-09 and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean production was projected at 246.07 million tonnes, up 2.13 million tonnes from 243.94 million tonnes in September and up 35.43 million tonnes, or 17%, from 210.64 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 54.79 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 4.26 million tonnes, or 8%, from 50.53 million tonnes in September and up 12.74 million tonnes, or 30%, from 42.05 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 220.6 million cwts, up 2 million cwts from September and up 16.9 million cwts, or 8%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010, was projected at 46.6 million cwts, up 2 million cwts from September and up 16.2 million cwts, or 53%, from 30.4 million cwts in 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13@14 a cwt, down 65c on both ends of the range from September and compared with $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.

World rice production was projected at 433.65 million tonnes, up 110,000 tonnes from 433.54 million tonnes in September but down 12.02 million tonnes, or 3%, from 445.67 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 85.90 million tonnes, up 1.02 million tonnes from 84.88 million tonnes in September but down 4.81 million tonnes, or 5%, from 90.71 million tonnes in 2008-09.


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