Wheat carryover for 2010 balloons in latest U.S.D.A. forecast
Wheat carryover for 2010 balloons in latest U.S.D.A. forecast
BakingBusiness.com, October 20, 2009
by Jay Sjerven

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WASHINGTON — The carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2010, will be the largest in nine years, according to the latest supply/demand projectives issued by the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. At 864 million bus, the forecast wheat carryover was 121 million bus, or 18%, larger than the September projection and 207 million bus, or 32%, larger than the June 1, 2009, wheat inventory of 657 million bus. The recent five-year average wheat carryover was 506 million bus.

The huge increase in the carryover forecast for 2010 from the September projection was the result of a larger crop estimate for 2009 and sizable reductions in both exports and domestic feed and residual use forecasts for 2009-10, which combined to easily overwhelm a 10-million-bu reduction in estimated beginning stocks.

Based on revised crop estimates contained in the Small Grains Summary 2009 issued Sept. 30, the U.S.D.A. estimated 2009 U.S. wheat production at 2,220 million bus, up 36 million bus from the August estimate but down 279 million bus, or 11%, from 2,499 millionbus in 2008. The 2008 wheat crop was the largest since 2,547 million bus were harvested in 1998.

The U.S.D.A. left unchanged its projection for wheat imports at 110 million bus, which was 17 million bus lower than the 2008-09 import number.

Wheat supplies in the United States for the 2009-10 crop year were projected at 2,987 million bus, up 26 million bus from the September forecast and up 55 million bus from 2,932 million bus in 2008-09. The wheat supply for the current year was the largest since 3,268 million bus in 2000-01.

The department projected wheat disappearance in the 2009-10 crop year at 2,123 million bus, down 95 million bus from the September forecast and down 152 million bus, or 7%, from 2,275 million bus in 2008-09.

Domestic use of wheat in the current year was projected at 1,223 million bus, down 45 million bus from the September forecast and down 37 million bus from 1,260 million bus in 2008-09. Food use of wheat was projected unchanged at a record 955 million bus, but the feed and residual use forecast was lowered 45 million bus, to 190 million bus. Feed and residual use of wheat totaled 260 million bus in 2008-09 and a mere 16 million bus in 2007-08. The U.S.D.A. said the adjustment to the feed and residual use forecast for 2009-10 resulted from lower-than-expected disappearance during the June-August quarter as indicated in the Sept. 1 Grain Stocks report.

Seed use of wheat in 2009-10 was projected unchanged from September at 78 million bus. Seed use was projected 3 million bus higher than in 2008-09 but 10 million bus lower than in 2007-08.

U.S. wheat exports in 2009-10 were projected at 900 million bus, down 50 million bus from the September forecast and down 115 million bus, or 11%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09. The recent five-year average wheat outgo was 1,051 million bus. The U.S.D.A. said about the lower export forecast for the current year, "Higher-than-expected wheat production and supplies in the main wheat-exporting countries of Canada, Russia, the European Union, Australia and Kazakhstan will increase competition for U.S. exports, despite the weakening U.S. dollar."

The largest carryover adjustment from September in forecasts for 2009-10 wheat supply and demand by class was in hard spring wheat. The carryover of hard spring wheat was raised 62 million bus, to 253 million bus, as the production estimate was raised 40 million bus, to 551 million bus, and projected exports were reduced 25 million bus, to 215 million bus.

The projected hard winter wheat carryover was raised 50 million bus from September, to 354 million bus, as the production estimate was raised 4 million bus, to 919 million bus, while projected domestic use was lowered 15 million bus, to 475 million bus, and forecast exports were reduced 35 million bus, to 345 million bus.

The soft red winter wheat carryover forecast was raised 19 million bus from September, to 162 million bus, as the supply projection was lowered 11 million bus, to 592 million bus, principally because of an 8-million-bu drop in the crop estimate, to 404 million bus, while projected domestic use was lowered 20 million bus, to 300 million bus, and exports were reduced 10 million bus, to 130 million bus.

The white wheat carryover projection was lowered 11 million bus, to 42 million bus. The white wheat 2009 production estimate was dropped 11 million bus, to 237 million bus, while a 10-million-bu decrease in projected 2009-10 domestic use, to 101 million bus, was offset by a 10-million-bu increase in projected exports, to 170 million bus.

The 2010 durum carryover projection was raised 2 million bus, to 53 million bus, as the production estimate was raised 12 million bus from the August forecast, to 110 million bus, and the export forecast was raised 10 million bus, to 40 million bus.


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