U.S.D.A. raises 2010 wheat carryover 9% from June
U.S.D.A. raises 2010 wheat carryover 9% from June
BakingBusiness.com, July 10, 2009
by Ron Sterk

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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2010, at 706 million bus, up 59 million bus, or 9%, from 647 million bus projected in June, up 39 million bus, or 6%, from 667 million bus in 2009 and the largest since 777 million bus in 2002.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 693 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,112 million bus for 2009, up 96 million bus from 2,016 million bus in June but down 16% from 2,500 million bus in 2008, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,525 million bus, spring wheat production of 506 million bus and a durum crop of 81 million bus.

Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,894 million bus, up 94 million bus, or 3%, from 2,800 million bus in June but down 36 million bus, or 1%, from 2,930 million bus last year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 925 million bus, up 25 million bus from June but down 90 million bus, or 9%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, unchanged from June and up 33 million bus from 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 230 million bus, up 10 million bus from June but down 17 million bus from last year. Seed use was unchanged from June at 78 million bus and down 1 million bus from last year.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.80@5.80 a bu, down 10c on both ends of the range from June, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 656.48 million tonnes, up 420,000 tonnes from June but down 4% from record large outturn of 682.32 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 181.28 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 1.37 million tonnes from June but up 13.93 million tonnes, or 8%, from 167.35 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2009, was projected at 1,550 million bus, up 460 million bus, or 42%, from 1,090 million bus in June but down 220 million bus, or 12% from 1,770 million bus in 2009. The 2010 U.S.D.A. number was below the average of trade expectations that was near 1,567 million bus. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,950 million bus, up 50 million bus from June and up 150 million bus from 2008-09.

Corn production in 2009 was projected at 12,290 million bus, up 355 million bus, or 3%, from 11,935 million bus projected in June, up 189 million bus, or 2%, from 12,101 million bus in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. The average yield for U.S. corn was projected at 153.4 bus per acre, unchanged from June and down 0.5 bus from 153.9 bus in 2008. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.35@4.15 a bu in 2009-10, down 55c on each end of the range from June and compared with $3.95@4.15 this year and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 139.17 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 13.71 million tonnes, or 11%, from June but down 4.65 million tonnes, or 3%, from 143.82 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 250 million bus, up 40 million bus, or 19%, from 210 million bus in June and up 140 million bus from 110 million bus in the current year. The U.S.D.A. number was above trade expectations that averaged near 230 million bus for 2010. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,275 million bus, up 15 million bus from June and from the current year.

U.S. Soybean production was projected at a record 3,260 million bus in 2009, up 65 million bus, or 2%, from June and up 301 million bus, or 10%, from 2008.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.30@10.30 a bus in 2009-10, down 70c on each side of the range from June and compared with $10 this year and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean ending stocks were projected at 51.83 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 810,000 tonnes from June and up 10.49 million tonnes, or 26%, from 41.04 million tonnes the previous year.


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