U.S.D.A. wheat, corn carryover up from July
U.S.D.A. wheat, corn carryover up from July
BakingBusiness.com, August 12, 2009
by Ron Sterk

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected larger 2010 carryover stocks of wheat and corn but smaller stocks of soybeans in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Carryover for the current year was unchanged for wheat and soybeans but lowered for corn.

Projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2010, was 743 million bus, up 37 million bus, or 5%, from 706 million bus projected in July and up 76 million bus, or 11%, from 667 million bus in 2009.

Projected corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was 1,621 million bus, up 71 million bus, or 5%, from 1,550 million bus projected in July but down 99 million bus, or 6%, from a revised 1,720 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2010, was projected at 210 million bus, down 40 million bus, or 16%, from 250 million bus projected in July but up 100 million bus, or 91%, from 110 million bus in 2009, the U.S.D.A. said.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. wheat carryover was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 737 million bus. The U.S.D.A. corn number was below the average trade estimate of 1.7 billion bus. The soybean projection also was below analyst expectations that averaged 221 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,184 million bus for 2009, up 72 million bus, or 3%, from 2,112 million bus in July but down 316 million bus, or 13%, from 2,500 million bus in 2008, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,537 million bus, spring wheat production of 548 million bus and a durum crop of 98 million bus.

Total wheat supply in 2009-10 was projected at 2,961 million bus, up 67 million bus, or 2%, from 2,894 million bus in July and up 29 million bus, or 1%, from 2,932 million bus last year.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2009-10 were projected at 950 million bus, up 25 million bus from July but down 65 million bus, or 6%, from 1,015 million bus in 2008-09.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 at 955 million bus, unchanged from July and up 30 million bus, or 3%, from 925 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use was projected at 235 million bus, up 5 million bus from July but down 11 million bus from 246 million bus last year. Seed use was unchanged from July at 78 million bus and down 1 million bus from 2008-09.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2009-10 was projected to range from $4.70@5.70 a bu, down 10c on both ends of the range from July, and compared with $6.78 in 2008-09 and $6.48 2007-08.

Global 2009-10 wheat production was projected at 659.29 million tonnes, up 2.81 million tonnes from July but down 23.11 million tonnes, or 3%, from record large outturn of 682.4 million tonnes in 2008-09. World wheat ending stocks were projected at 183.56 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 2.28 million tonnes from July and up 14.06 million tonnes, or 8%, from 169.5 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. corn production in 2009 was projected at 12,761 million bus, up 471 million bus, or 4%, from the non-survey based projection of 12,290 million bus in July, up 660 million bus, or 5%, from 12,101 million bus in 2008, and the second largest crop on record if realized. Total corn supply in 2009-10 was projected at a record high 14,496 million bus, up 3% from July and up 6% from 13,740 million bus in 2008-09. Feed and residual use of corn was projected at 5,300 million bus, up 100 million bus, or 2%, from 5,200 million bus in July and up 50 million bus from 2008-09. Feed and seed use was unchanged from July at 1,275 million bus. Use of corn for ethanol was projected at 4,200 million bus in 2009-10, up 100 million bus from July and up 550 million bus, or 15%, from 3,650 million bus this year. U.S. corn exports in 2009-10 were projected at 2,100 million bus, up 150 million bus, or 8%, from July and up 250 million bus, or 14%, from 2008-09. The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.10@3.90 a bu in 2009-10, down 25c on each end of the range from July and compared with $4@4.10 this year and $4.20 in 2007-08.

World corn production in 2009-10 was projected at 796.33 million tonnes, up 1% from both a month ago and a year ago. Global corn ending stocks were projected at 141.49 million tonnes for 2009-10, up 2.32 million tonnes, or 2%, from July but down 2.59 million tonnes, or 2%, from 144.08 million tonnes in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean production in 2009 was projected at a record high 3.199 million bus, down 61 million bus, or 2%, from the non-survey based July projection of 3,260 million bus but up 240 million bus, or 8%, from 2,959 million bus in 2008. Total 2009-10 soybean supply was projected at 3,320 million bus, down 60 million bus from July but up 141 million bus, or 4%, from 3,179 million bus in 2008-09. Domestic crush was projected at 1,670 million bus, down 10 million bus from July but up 10 million bus from 2008-09. Seed use was unchanged from July at 94 million bus, down 2 million bus from 2008-09. U.S. soybean exports in 2009-10 were projected at 1,265 million bus, down 10 million bus from July and even with the current year. The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8.40@10.40 a bus in 2009-10, up 10c on each side of the range from July and compared with $10 this year and $10.10 in 2007-08.

Global soybean ending stocks were projected at 50.32 million tonnes in 2009-10, down 1.51 million tonnes, or 3%, from 51.83 million tonnes in July but up 9.32 million tonnes, or 23%, from 41 million tonnes the previous year.

U.S. rice production was projected at 211.2 million cwts, up 200,000 cwts from the non-survey based July projection and up 7.5 million cwts, or 4%, from 203.7 million cwts in 2008. Carryover of rice on Aug. 1, 2010, was projected at 23.9 million cwts, up 1.2 million cwts from July and from 2008-09. The average farm price of rice was projected to range from $13.65@14.65 a cwt, up 40c on each end of the previous month’s range, and compared with $16.25 a cwt in 2008-09 and $12.80 in 2007-08.

World rice production was projected at 433.46 million tonnes, down 15.52 million tonnes, or 3%, from the July projection and down 11.39 million tonnes, or 3%, from 444.85 million tonnes in 2008-09. Ending stocks were projected at 84.04 million tonnes, down 10.47 million tonnes, or 11%, from July and down 4.67 million tonnes, or 5%, from 88.71 million tonnes in 2008-09.

"This month’s lower (rice) crop forecast is primarily due to the effects of a below-normal monsoon in India," the U.S.D.A. said. Production in India was projected at 84 million tonnes, down 15.5 million tonnes, or 16%, from July and down 15.15 million tonnes, or 15%, from 99.15 million tonnes produced in 2008-09.


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