I.G.C. raises wheat carryover forecast for 2012

by Josh Sosland
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LONDON — The world wheat carryover forecast was raised 7 million tonnes in the most recent projections of the International Grains Council, to 211 million tonnes.

The Feb. 23 carryover forecast would be up 8% from 196 million tonnes in 2011. At 211 million tonnes, ending stocks would be up from 199 million tonnes in 2010, 173 million in 2009 and 132 million in 2008.

Wheat production in 2011-12 was forecast at 695 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from January and up 6% from 653 million in 2010-11.

Market conditions over the past month were not consistent with the carryover data, the I.G.C. said.

“Wheat export prices in Europe climbed by some 8%, in somewhat tighter markets, with reports of logistical problems and possible future export restrictions in the Black Sea region (though denied), seen as potentially bullish,” the council said. “However, global supplies appear ample, with the likelihood that a portion of upcoming large South Asian wheat harvests will be offered for export.”

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