No recovery seen in world wheat stocks

by Josh Sosland
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LONDON — Even while production of wheat in 2011-12 is forecast to rise 22 million tonnes from the year before, wheat ending stocks in the new crop year are expected to hold steady, according to forecasts issued April 20 by the International Grains Council.

In its projections for the new crop year, the I.G.C. forecast wheat ending stocks in 2012 of 186 million tonnes, unchanged from 2011 and down from 199 million tonnes in 2010.

The I.G.C. projected wheat production in 2011-12 at 672 million tonnes, up 22 million tonnes from the year before but still below the record crops of 686 million tonnes in 2008-09 and 679 million tonnes in 2009-10.

“Spring wheat sowing is being hindered by wet soils in the U.S., Canada and Russia,” the I.G.C. said.
Wheat consumption in 2011-12 was projected at a record 672 million tonnes, up 10 million tonnes from 2010-11 and compared with 648 million in 2009-10.

World wheat trade in 2011-12 was projected at 126 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from 2010-11, but down from 128 million in 2009-10 and 137 million in 2008-09.

“World trade will be lifted by larger milling imports in North Africa and Near East Asia as well as by anticipated strong global demand for competitively-priced wheat for feed,” the I.G.C. said.

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