U.S.D.A. lowers 2011 wheat carryover 1% from May

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 991 million bus, down 6 million bus, or about 1%, from 997 million bus forecast in May but up 61 million bus, or about 7%, from a revised 930 million bus in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected 2010 U.S.D.A. carryover was slightly above the average pre-report trade expectation of 987 million bus.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009-10, which ended May 31, were reduced by 20 million bus from the May forecast, to 930 million bus, “as strong exports of wheat, flour and products during the final weeks of the old crop marketing year boost 2009-10 exports 20 million bus (to 885 million bus),” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,067 million bus for 2010-11, up 24 million bus, or 1%, from 2,043 million bus in May but down 149 million bus, or 7%, from 2,216 million bus in 2009-10, based on forecast winter wheat outturn of 1,482 million bus and projected spring wheat (durum and other than durum) production of 585 million bus using planting intentions and trendline data for yield and abandonment.

Total wheat supply was projected at 3,107 million bus for 2010-11, up 4 million bus from May and up 119 million bus, or 4%, from 3,103 million bus in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 900 million bus, unchanged from May but up 15 million bus, or 2%, from 885 million bus in 2009-10.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bus, unchanged from May but up 20 million bus, or 2%, from 920 million bus in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bus, also unchanged from May but up 3 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 200 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 5%, from 190 million bus in May and up 11% from 180 million bus in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2,116 million bus, up 10 million bus from May and up 58 million bus, or 3%, from 2,058 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $4@4.80 a bus, compared with $4.10@5.10 in May and $4.85 estimated in 2009-10.

While the U.S.D.A. did not yet make 2010-11 wheat by class projections, data for 2009-10 were revised from May. Ending stocks for hard winter wheat were forecast at 365 million bus, down 15 million bus from May due to a 15-million-bu increase in exports, to 375 million bus. Soft red winter ending stocks were forecast at 206 million bus, down 5 million bus from May due to a 5-million-bu increase in exports, forecast at 110 million bus. Unchanged from May were ending stocks for hard spring wheat at 250 million bus, white wheat at 62 million bus and durum at 47 million bus.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 668.52 million tonnes, down 3.66 million tonnes from May and down 11.52 million tonnes, or 2%, from 680.04 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 667.49 million tonnes, up 30,000 tonnes from May and up 15.31 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.18 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 131.36 million tonnes, up 2.18 million tonnes, or 2%, from 129.18 million tonnes in May and up 2.48 million tonnes, also 2%, from 128.88 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 193.93 million tonnes, down 4.16 million tonnes, or 2%, from May and up 1.03 million tonnes from 192.9 million tonnes in 2009-10.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 1,573 million bus, down 245 million bus, or 13%, from 1,818 million bus in May and down 30 million bus from a downwardly revised 1,603 million bus in 2010. The U.S.D.A. numbers were well below analysts’ expectations, which averaged near 1,831 million bus for 2010-11 and 1,724 million bus for 2009-10.

Corn production was forecast at 13,370 million bus, unchanged from May, but total supply for 2010-11 was reduced 135 million bus, to 14,983 million bus, due to a lower beginning stocks number.

Feed and residual use was projected at 5,350 million bus, unchanged from May, and exports at 2,000 million bus, also unchanged. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,060 million bus, up 110 million bus from May, based on a 100-million-bu boost in projected use of corn for ethanol, to 4,700 million bus, and a 10-million-bu increase in food and seed use, to 1,360 million bus.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $3.30@3.90 a bu, compared with $3.20@3.80 forecast in May and $3.45@3.65 in 2009-10.

World corn ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 147.32 million tonnes, down 6.89 million tonnes, or 4%, from 154.21 million tonnes in May but up 3.91 million tonnes, or 3%, from 143.41 million tonnes in 2009-10. World corn production was projected at 835.77 million tonnes, up slightly from 835.03 million tonnes in May and up 26.97 million tonnes, or 3%, from 808.8 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 360 million bus, down 5 million bus, or 1%, from 365 million bus in the current year but up 175 million bus, or 96%, from downwardly revised 185 million bus this year. U.S.D.A. carryover numbers were in line with trade expectations.

Soybean production was projected at 3,310 million bus, unchanged from May, but total supply was lowered 5 million bus, to 3,505 million bus due to a like reduction in beginning stocks. Unchanged from May were projected 2010-11 soybean crushings at 1,640 million bus, exports at 1,350 million bus, seed use at 88 million bus and residual at 66 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $8@9.50 a bus, unchanged from May and compared with $9.50 this year and $9.97 in 2008-09.

Global soybean production in 2010-11 was projected at 249.93 million tonnes, down slightly from 250.13 million tonnes in May and down 9.27 million tonnes, or 4%, from 259.2 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 soybean ending stocks were projected at 66.99 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from 66.09 million tonnes in May and up 1.52 million tonnes, or 2%, from 65.47 million tonnes this year.

Carryover of U.S. rice on Aug. 1, 2011 was projected at 45.4 million cwts, down 6 million cwts, or 12%, from 51.4 million cwts in May but up 17 million cwts, or 60%, from 28.4 million cwts this year.

Global rice ending stocks in 2010-11 were projected at 96.27 million tonnes, down 350,000 tonnes from 96.62 million tonnes in May but up 6.65 million tonnes, or 7%, from 89.62 million tonnes in 2009-10.

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