U.S. 2012 wheat carryover up 10% from September

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 837 million bus, up 76 million bus, or 10%, from 671 million bus forecast in September but down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover was above average trade expectation of 747 million bus and exceeded the high end of the range of trade estimates as well.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 866 million bus, up 194 million bus, or 29%, from 672 million bus in September but down 262 million bus, or 23%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011.

The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate near 795 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 160 million bus, down 5 million bus, or 3%, from 165 million bus in September and down 55 million bus, or 26%, from 215 million bus estimated for 2011.
The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of about 181 million bus.

U.S. all wheat production was projected at 2,008 million bus for 2011, down 69 million bus, or 3%, from 2,077 million bus in September and down 199 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, up 9% from 110 million bus in September and up 24% from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,990 million bus for 2011-12, down 57 million bus, or 2%, from September and down 289 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 5%, from 1,025 million bus in September and down 314 million bus, or 24%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 940 million bus, unchanged from September but up 14 million bus, or 2%, from 926 million bus in 2010-11, and seed use at 78 million bus, down 4 million bus from September but up 7 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bus, down 80 million bus, or 33%, from 240 million bus in September but up 28 million bus, or 21%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,153 million bus, down 134 million bus, or 6%, from 2,287 million bus in September and down 264 million bus, or 11%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.10@7.90 a bus, down from $7.35@8.35 in September and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

“Despite competitive wheat prices relative to corn for feeders in many areas, wheat feed and residual use during June-August is indicated 53 million bus lower than the same quarter last year,” the U.S.D.A. said.

On a by-class basis, the U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 298 million bus, up 26 million bus, or 10%, from 272 million bus in September but down 88 million bus, or 23%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 244 million bus, up 47 million bus, or 24%, from 197 million bus in September and up 73 million bus, or 43%, from 171 million bus in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 157 million bus, down 1 million bus from September and down 28 million bus, or 15%, from 185 million bus in 2011.

White wheat carryover was projected at 111 million bus in 2012, up 5 million bus from September and up 26 million bus, or 31%, from 85 million bus in 2011.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 28 million bus, unchanged from September and down 7 million bus, or 20%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at 681.2 million tonnes, up 3.08 million tonnes from September and up 33.04 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.16 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 674.43 million tonnes, down 2.43 million tonnes from September but up 21.13 million tonnes, or 3%, from 653.3 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 135.3 million tonnes, up 3.41 million tonnes from September and up 4.23 million tonnes from 131.07 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 202.37 million tonnes, up 7.78 million tonnes, or 4%, from September and up 6.77 million tonnes, or 3%, from 195.6 million tonnes in 2010-11.

“Reduced competition from U.S. spring wheat boosts prospects for Canada, while the record crop adds to available supplies in Kazakhstan,” the U.S.D.A. said. Projected 2011-12 exports were raised 2 million tonnes each for Australia and Russia and 1 million tonnes each for Canada and Kazakhstan.

“As projected, 2011-12 (world) ending stocks would be a 10-year high,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,433 million bus, down 1%, from 12,497 million bus in September and down 14 million bus from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from September but down 12 million bus, or 44%, from 27 million bus in 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,576 million bus, up 144 million bus, or 1%, from September but down 606 million bus, or 4%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Projected feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,700 million bus, unchanged from September but down 103 million bus, or 2%, from 4,803 million bus in 2010-11. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,410 million bus, also unchanged from September (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus, unchanged, and food and seed use at 1,410 million bus, unchanged), and down 5 million bus from 6,415 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,600 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 3%, from 1,650 million bus in September and down 235 million bus, or 13%, from 1,835 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.20@7.20 a bu, down 30c from September and compared with $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. 2011 soybean production was projected at 3,060 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 1%, from 3,085 million bus in September and down 269 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from September and from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,290 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 1%, from 3,325 million bus in September and down 205 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,130 million bus, down 31 million bus, or 1%, from 3,161 million bus in September and down 150 million bus, or 5%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,635 million bus, unchanged from September and down 13 million bus from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,375 million bus, down 40 million bus, or 3%, from 1,415 million bus in September and down 125 million bus, or 8%, from 2010-11. Residual was raised 9 million bus from September to 32 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12.15@14.15 a bus, down 50c from September and compared with $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

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