U.S. 2011 corn carryover reduced 9% from January

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for corn was reduced by 70 million bus, or 9%, from January, but wheat and soybean projections were unchanged from last month in today’s U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bus, down 70 million bus, or 9%, from 745 million bus projected in January, and down 1,033 million bus, or 60%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010. The reduction was based on projected increased domestic demand for corn in 2010-11, including a 50-million-bu increase for ethanol, a 15-million-bu increase for high-fructose corn syrup and a 5-million-bu increase for starch.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 818 million bus, unchanged from January but down 158 million bus, or 16%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bus, unchanged from January but down 11 million bus, or 7%, from 151 million bus a year earlier.

The U.S.D.A. corn carryover projection was below the average of pre-report trade estimates that was near 735 million bus, but the wheat projection was slightly above the average estimate of 810 million bus and the U.S.D.A. soybean number was slightly above trade expectations that averaged near 135 million bus.

Corn supply projections were unchanged from January with 2010 corn production at 12,447 million bus, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bus, beginning stocks at 1,708 million bus and total U.S. supply at 14,175 million bus.
Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,350 million bus, up 70 million bus, or 1%, from 6,280 million bus in January and up 411 million bus, or 7%, from 5,939 million bus in 2009-10. Included was a 50-million-bu increase in projected use of corn for ethanol, at 4,950 million bus, and a 20-million-bu increase in food, seed and industrial use, at 1,400 million bus.

“Rising corn prices have reduced spot margins relative to variable costs to break-even levels in recent weeks, however, ethanol blender incentives remain in place and export demand prospects remain strong with sugar-based ethanol uncompetitive at current sugar prices,” the U.S.D.A. said. U.S. ethanol production was above expectations in November and was expected to be record high in December and January, the agency said.

“Corn used to produce high-fructose corn syrup is projected 15 million bus higher reflecting strong shipments of the corn-based sweetener to Mexico,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Demand for HFCS has grown in Mexico as sugar exports to the United States have increased. Corn used for starch is also raised 5 million bus based on the improving outlook for industrial output in the United States.”

U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5,200 million bus, unchanged from January but up 60 million bus, or 1%, from 5,140 million bus in 2009-10. Total domestic use was projected at 11,550 million bus, up 70 million bus from January and up 471 million bus, or 4%, from 11,079 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, unchanged from January but down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.05@5.75 a bu in 2010-11, compared with $4.90@5.70 a bu projected in January, $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 a bu in 2008-09.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat numbers were unchanged from January, except the average price, which was projected to range from $5.60@5.80 a bu, compared with $5.50@5.80 in January, $4.97 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

Unchanged from January were beginning stocks at 976 million bus, production at 2,208 million bus, imports at 110 million bus and total supply at 3,294 million bus.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 total use, projected at 2,476 million bus, including food use at 930 million bus, seed use at 76 million bus, feed and residual at 170 million bus and exports at 1,300 million bus.

There were several changes from January in the by-class breakdown. The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 313 million bus, unchanged from January but down 72 million bus, or 19%, from 385 million bus in 2010. Domestic use of hard winter wheat in 2010-11 was projected at 476 million bus, down 10 million bus from January, and exports were projected at 615 million bus, up 10 million bus.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 211 million bus, up 10 million bus from January but down 23 million bus from 234 million bus in 2010. Domestic use was projected at 273 million bus, up 10 million bus from January, but exports were projected at 355 million bus, down 20 million bus.

White wheat carryover was projected at 73 million bus in 2011, down 10 million bus from January and down 7 million bus from 2010, based on a 10-million-bu increase in exports, projected at 190 million bus in 2010-11.
Soft red winter wheat numbers were unchanged from January with carryover projected at 173 million bus, down 69 million bus, or 29%, from 242 million bus in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 48 million bus, also unchanged from January but up 13 million bus from 35 million bus in 2010.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 177.77 million tonnes, down 220,000 tonnes from January and down 19.83 million tonnes, or 10%, from 197.6 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 645.41 million tonnes, down 410,000 tonnes from January and down 37.24 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.65 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 665.23 million tonnes, down 30,000 tonnes from January but up 12.97 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.26 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 125.34 million tonnes, down 300,000 tonnes from January and down 10.31 million tonnes, or 8%, from 135.65 million tonnes in the prior year.

All U.S. soybean projections were unchanged from January with total supply at 3,495 million bus, domestic crush at 1,655 million bus, seed use at 88 million bus, residual at 22 million bus and exports at a record 1,590 million bus. The projected average farm price of soybeans also was unchanged from January at $11.20@12.20 a bu, and compared with $9.59 a bu in 2009-10 and $9.97 a bu in 2008-09.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 52.8 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from January and up 16.1 million cwts, or 44%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The change was based on a reduction of 1 million cwts in 2010-11 rice exports, projected at 116 million cwts.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 93.95 million tonnes, down 520,000 tonnes from January and down 640,000 tonnes from a year earlier.

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