Wheat carryover forecast up 25 million bus

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for wheat was raised by 3% from February, but corn and soybean projections were unchanged from last month in today’s U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 843 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 3%, from 818 million bus in February but down 133 million bus, or 14%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said. The reduction was the result of a 25-million-bu cut in projected 2010-11 exports to 1,275 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bus, unchanged from the February projection but down 1,033 million bus, or 60%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010. All other 2010-11 corn projections also were unchanged except for the projected average price range, which was narrowed to $5.15@5.65 a bu from $5.05@5.75 a bu in February and compared with $3.55 a bu in 2009-10 and $4.06 a bu in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bus, unchanged from February but down 11 million bus, or 7%, from 151 million bus a year earlier. Other 2010-11 soybean projections were unchanged from February except seed use, which was raised 3 million bus to 91 million bus, and residual, which was lowered 3 million bus, to 19 million bus. The projected 2010-11 average price range also was lowered 10c a bu, to $11.10@12.10 a bu from $11.20@12.20 a bu in February and compared with $9.59 a bu in 2009-10 and $9.97 a bu in 2008-09.

U.S. soybean projections unchanged from February included beginning stocks at 151 million bus, 2010 production at 3,329 million bus, imports at 15 million bus and 2010-11 total supply at 3,495 million bus. Use projections unchanged were domestic crush at 1,655 million bus and exports at a record 1,590 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. wheat and corn carryover projections were above trade expectations, which average near 810 million bus for wheat and 666 million bus for corn. The soybean projection was slightly below the average trade estimate of 142 million bus.

“Projected exports are lowered 25 million bus with increased world supplies of high quality wheat, particularly in Australia, and a slower-than-expected pace of U.S. shipments heading into the final quarter of the wheat marketing year,” the U.S.D.A. said.

At 1,275 million bus, projected 2010-11 U.S. wheat exports were down 2% from 1,300 million bus projected in February but up 45% from 881 million bus estimated in 2009-10.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat numbers unchanged from February included beginning stocks at 976 million bus, production at 2,208 million bus, imports at 110 million bus and total supply at 3,294 million bus.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 food use at 930 million bus, seed use at 76 million bus, feed and residual at 170 million bus and total domestic use at 1,176 million bus. Total use was reduced by 25 million bus to 2,451 million bus due to the cut in exports. The average price was projected to range from $5.60@5.80 a bu, unchanged from February and compared with $4.87 a bu in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bu in 2008-09.

There were several changes from February in the by-class breakdown. The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 310 million bus, down 3 million bus from February and down 75 million bus from a year ago. The March change was based on a 5-million-bu increase in exports, to 620 million bus, and a 2-million-bu decrease in domestic use, to 474 million bus.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 233 million bus, up 22 million bus from February and just 1 million bus below 234 million bus in 2010. Domestic use was projected at 271 million bus, down 2 million bus from February, and exports were projected at 335 million bus, down 20 million bus.

Soft red winter wheat carryover projected at 168 million bus, down 5 million bus from February based on a like increase in projected exports, to 100 million bus, and down 31 million from 242 million bus in 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bus in 2011, up 10 million bus from February and up 3 million bus from 2010, based on a 10-million-bu decrease in 2010-11 exports, projected at 180 million bus.
Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 49 million bus, up 1 million bus from February and up 14 million bus from 35 million bus in 2010 based on a 4-million-bu increase in domestic use at 93 million bus more than offset by a 5-million-bu decrease in exports at 40 million bus.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 181.9 million tonnes, up 4.13 million tonnes from February but down 15.42 million tonnes, or 8%, from 197.32 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 647.6 million tonnes, up 2.19 million tonnes from February but down 34.99 million tonnes, or 5%, from 682.59 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 663.02 million tonnes, down 2.21 million tonnes from February but up 10.52 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.5 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 123.06 million tonnes, down 2.28 million tonnes from February and down 12.74 million tonnes, or 9%, from 135.8 million tonnes in the prior year.

U.S. corn supply projections were unchanged from February with 2010 corn production at 12,447 million bus, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bus, beginning stocks at 1,708 million bus and total U.S. supply at 14,175 million bus.

Food, seed and industrial use of corn was unchanged at 6,350 million bus, including projected 2010-11 use for ethanol at 4,950 million bus and food, seed and industrial use at 1,400 million bus. U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5,200 million bus, unchanged from February. Total domestic use was projected at 11,550 million bus, unchanged from February and up 471 million bus, or 4%, from 11,079 million bus in 2009-10.

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, unchanged from February but down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10. Total corn use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 13,500 million bus, up 434 million bus, or 3%, from 13,066 million bus last year.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 52.8 million cwts, unchanged from February but up 16.1 million cwts, or 44%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The average farm price was projected to range from $12.25@12.75 a cwt, up 10c from February but down from $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10 and $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 98.78 million tonnes, up 4.93 million tonnes, or 5%, from February and up 4.52 million tonnes, or 5%, from 94.26 million tonnes a year earlier. The increase was the result of a 13,000-tonne-decrease in 2010-11 production, still a record high at 451.52 million tonnes, more than offset by a 5.28-million-tonne decrease in consumption, also still record high at 447 million tonnes.

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