U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down slightly from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The U.S. 2011 carryover projection for wheat was reduced slightly from March, but corn and soybean carryover projections were unchanged from last month in today’s U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 839 million bus, down 4 million bus from 843 million bus in March and down 137 million bus, or 14%, from 976 million bus in 2010, the U.S.D.A. said. The reduction was the result of a 4-million-bu increase in projected 2010-11 seed use. Other all wheat supply and use numbers were unchanged, although there were changes in the wheat by class numbers and the projected average price range was lowered 10c, to $5.50@5.70 a bu.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 675 million bus, unchanged from the March projection but down 1,033 million bus, or 60%, from 1,708 million bus in 2010. A projected 50-million-bu increase in use of corn to make ethanol in 2010-11 was offset by a like decrease in feed and residual, the U.S.D.A. said. The projected average price range was narrowed to $5.20@5.60 a bu from $5.15@5.65 a bu in March.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 140 million bus, unchanged from March but down 11 million bus, or 7%, from 151 million bus a year earlier. Projected decreases of 10 million bus in exports, 5 million bus in crushings and 2 million bus in seed use for 2010-11 were offset by a 17-million-bu increase in residual. The projected average price range was narrowed to $11.25@11.75 a bu from $11.10@12.10 a bu in March.

The U.S.D.A. wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation, which was near 860 million bus, but the U.S.D.A. corn and soybean carryover projections were above the average trade estimates near 590 million bus for corn and 137 million bus for soybeans.

U.S. 2010-11 all wheat supply numbers were unchanged from March, including beginning stocks at 976 million bus, production at 2,208 million bus, imports at 110 million bus and total supply at 3,294 million bus.

Also unchanged from last month were 2010-11 food use at 930 million bus and feed and residual at 170 million bus. Seed use was increased 4 million bus, to 80 million bus in 2010-11, bringing total domestic use to 1,180 million bus. Projected exports were unchanged at 1,275 million bus, resulting in total use projected at 2,455 million bus, up 4 million bus from March and up 437 million bus, or 22%, from 2,018 million bus in 2009-10.

“Higher planted area as reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings raises projected seed use 4 million bus,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Several changes from March were made in the by-class breakdown. The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2011, carryover of hard winter wheat at 325 million bus, up 15 million bus from March but down 60 million bus from a year ago. The change was based on a 15-million-bu decrease in projected domestic use at 459 million bus.
Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 215 million bus, down 18 million bus from March and 19 million bus below 234 million bus in 2010. Changes were based on a 3-million-bu reduction in 2010-11 supply at 836 million bus and a 15-million-bu increase in domestic use at 286 million bus.

Soft red winter wheat carryover projected at 169 million bus, up 1 million bus from March but down 73 million bus from 2010. The change was based on a 5-million-bu increase in supply partially offset by a 4 million-bu increase in domestic use.

White wheat carryover was projected at 83 million bus in 2011, unchanged from March but up 3 million bus from 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 47 million bus, down 2 million bus from March but up 12 million bus from 2010 based on a 2-million-bu decrease in total supply in 2010-11.

World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 182.83 million tonnes, up 930,000 tonnes from March but down 15.08 million tonnes, or 8%, from 197.91 million tonnes in 2009-10. Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 647.18 million tonnes, down 420,000 tonnes from March and down 36.63 million tonnes, or 5%, from 683.81 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 662.26 million tonnes, down 760,000 tonnes from March but up 9.71 million tonnes, or 2%, from 652.55 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 124.16 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from March but down 11.64 million tonnes, or 9%, from 135.8 million tonnes in the prior year.

U.S. corn supply projections were unchanged from March with 2010 corn production at 12,447 million bus, 2010-11 imports at 20 million bus, beginning stocks at 1,708 million bus and total U.S. supply at 14,175 million bus.

Food, seed and industrial use of corn in 2010-11 was raised 50 million bus, to 6,400 million bus, with food, seed and industrial use unchanged at 1,400 million bus but projected use of corn for ethanol raised 50 million bus to 5,000 million bus. U.S. 2010-11 feed and residual use was projected at 5,150 million bus, down 50 million bus from March. Total domestic use was projected at 11,550 million bus, unchanged from March but up 471 million bus, or 4%, from 11,079 million bus in 2009-10.

“Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bus as strong blender incentives and positive ethanol producer margins continue to encourage expansion in ethanol production and use,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Rising gasoline prices have pulled ethanol prices higher helping to offset increases in corn feedstock costs for ethanol producers.”

The U.S.D.A. continued, “U.S. corn feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bus as increased prospects for 2011 soft red winter wheat production and higher year-to-year corn plantings in the South reduce expected corn feed and residual disappearance during the second half of the 2010-11 corn marketing year.”

U.S. corn exports in 2010-11 were projected at 1,950 million bus, unchanged from March but down 37 million bus, or 2%, from 1,987 million bus in 2009-10. Total corn use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 13,500 million bus, up 434 million bus, or 3%, from 13,066 million bus last year.

U.S. soybean supply projections were unchanged from March, including beginning stocks at 151 million bus, 2010 production at 3,329 million bus, imports at 15 million bus and 2010-11 total supply at 3,495 million bus.
Domestic soybean crush in 2010-11 was projected at 1,650 million bus, down 5 million bus from the March projection and down 102 million bus, or 6%, from 1,752 million bus last year. Seed use in 2010-11 was projected at 89 million bus, down 2 million bus from March and down 1 million bus from 2009-10. Projected soybean exports in 2010-11 were reduced by 10 million bus, to 1,580 million bus, which still were record high, and up 79 million bus, or 5%, from 1,501 million bus the previous year. Total soybean use in 2010-11 was unchanged at 3,355 million bus, down 6 million bus from 2009-10.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 60.94 million tonnes, up 2.61 million tonnes from March and up 2.06 million tonnes from 2009-10. The increase was mainly the result of a 2-million-tonne increase in projected soybean production in Brazil, to a record 72 million tonnes.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2011, was projected at 54.8 million cwts, up 2 million cwts from March and up 18.1 million cwts, or 49%, from 36.7 million cwts in 2010. The average farm price was projected to range from $12.35@12.85 a cwt, up 10c from March but down from $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10 and $16.80 a cwt in 2008-09.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 97.09 million tonnes, down 1.69 million tonnes from March but up 3.28 million tonnes, or 3%, from 93.81 million tonnes a year earlier. The decrease was mainly the result of lower global production and a slight increase in consumption, the U.S.D.A. said.

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