U.S.D.A. lowers wheat carryover to 670 million bus
July 12, 2011
by Ron Sterk
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture today forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2012, at 670 million bus, down 17 million bus from its June projection and down 191 million bus, or 22%, from an upwardly revised 861 million bus in 2011. The forecast contained in the July World Supply and Demand Estimates fell below the average of pre-report trade estimates at 702 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. raised its forecast of the 2011-12 U.S. wheat supply by 90 million bus from its June projection. Forecast at 3,067 million bus, the supply in the current crop year would be 217 million bus, or 7%, smaller than 3,284 million bus in 2010-11.
The increased supply forecast for this year reflected a 52-million-bu increase in the estimated 2011-12 carry-in that resulted from the estimate of June 1 wheat stocks issued by the department on June 30. Also, the wheat production forecast for 2011 was raised 48 million bus from the June outlook to 2,106 million bus, as higher winter wheat production and higher forecast yields for durum and other-spring wheat more than offset the lower wheat area as estimated in the June 30 Acreage report. The wheat production forecast for 2011 was down 102 million bus, or 5%, from the 2,208 million bus harvested last year.
U.S. wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 100 million bus, down 10 million bus from the June forecast and equal to the 100 million bus imported in the previous year. The U.S.D.A. attributed the lower import forecast to “lower expected supplies in Canada.”
Domestic use of wheat in the United States in 2011-12 was projected at 1,247 million bus, up 7 million bus from the June forecast and up 110 million bus, or 10%, from 1,137 million bus in 2010-11. The upward adjustment in domestic disappearance reflected an increase in forecast seed use of wheat in the current year to 82 million bus. The U.S.D.A. noted the seed use adjustment was required because late planting in the northern Plains shifted seed usage for the 2011 crop into the 2011-12 marketing year that began on June 1.
U.S. wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,150 million bus, up 100 million bus from the June forecast but down 136 million bus, or 11%, from 1,286 million bus in 2010-11. Exports last year were the largest since 1992-93.
Total wheat disappearance in the United States in 2011-12 was projected at 2,397 million bus, up 107 million bus from the June forecast but down 26 million bus from 2,423 million bus in 2010-11.
The 2011-12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $6.60@8 per bu, down 40c on both ends of the range with the U.S.D.A. linking the decline to the impact of a sharp drop in projected corn prices.
The July supply-and-demand estimates provided the year’s first wheat by-class breakdowns. The June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat was projected at 199 million bus, down 187 million bus, or 48%, from 386 million bus in 2011. The hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 173 million bus, down 12 million bus from 2010. The soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 183 million bus, up 13 million bus from 2010, and the white wheat carryover was forecast at 102 million bus, up 17 million bus from 2010. The durum carryover was projected at an anemic 14 million bus, down 21 million bus from 2010.
World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 182.19 million tonnes, down 2.07 million from June and down 7.78 million tonnes, or 4%, from 189.97 million tonnes estimated for 2010-11.
The U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 870 million bus, up 175 million bus, or 25%, from the June forecast but down just 10 million bus from 880 million bus as the projection for the current year. The higher forecast carryover reflected higher carry-in stocks than earlier projected and a higher production forecast based on the harvested area projection in the June 30 Acreage report. The U.S.D.A. number for 2012 still was below the average trade expectation of 1,013 million bus. The 2011 projection also was below the average trade estimate at 911 million bus.
The U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 175 million bus, down 15 million bus from the June forecast and down 25 million bus, or 13%, from 200 million bus as the forecast for the current year. The U.S.D.A. 2011 and 2012 carryover numbers were near the levels expected by the trade.