U.S.D.A. raises world wheat ending stocks

by Jay Sjerven
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WASHINGTON — The Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 forecast 2011-12 world wheat ending stocks at 194.59 million tonnes, up 5.72 million tonnes from the August projection for the year and up 1.25 million tonnes from 193.34 million bus in 2010-11.

The world wheat supply in the current year was projected at 871.46 million tonnes, up 7.63 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 23.39 million tonnes, or 3%, from 848.07 million tonnes in 2010-11. The U.S.D.A. commented the increase in the world supply for the current year reflected larger beginning stocks in Canada and increased production forecasts for Canada, the European Union and Ukraine.

World wheat production in 2011-12 was projected at 678.12 million tonnes, up 6.03 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 29.92 million tonnes, or 5%, from 648.2 million tonnes in the preceding year. Canadian wheat production was estimated at 24 million tonnes, up 2.5 million tonnes from the August forecast. E.U. wheat production was estimated at 135.79 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from August. Smaller production forecasts were registered for Brazil (up 0.2 million tonnes) and for Ukraine (up 1 million tonnes).

World wheat exports were projected at 131.89 million tonnes, up 0.56 million tonnes from the August forecast and up 1.65 million tonnes, or 1%, from 130.24 million tonnes in 2010-11. Canadian 2011-12 wheat exports were raised 2 million at 17 million tonnes, and E.U. exports were raised 1 million tonnes from August at 16 million tonnes. Russian, Kazakhstani and Ukrainian wheat exports in 2011-12 remained unchanged from the August forecasts at 16 million tonnes, 7.5 million tonnes and 9 million tonnes, respectively.

The world wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2011-12 was forecast at 28.7% compared with 28% as the August forecast and 29.6% in 2010-11.

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