U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 3% from January

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 845 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 870 million bus forecast in January and down 17 million bus, or 2%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The decrease was the result of projected increased exports in 2011-12.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 868 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bus, down 45 million bus, or 5%, from 846 million bus in January and down 327 million bus, or 29%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was slightly above the average trade estimate near 797 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 275 million bus, unchanged from January and up 60 million bus, or 28%, from 215 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 269 million bus.

With the exception of exports, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from January. U.S. all wheat production was projected at 1,999 million bus for 2011, unchanged from the January projection and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from January but up 23 million bus, or 24%, from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, also unchanged from January but down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 975 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 3%, from 950 million bus in January but down 314 million bus, or 24%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 935 million bus, unchanged from January but up 9 million bus from 926 million bus in 2010-11. Seed use was unchanged from January at 82 million bus, but up 11 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bus, unchanged from January but up 13 million bus, or 10%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,137 million bus, up 25 million bus from 2,112 million bus in January but down 280 million bus, or 12%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.15@7.45 a bu, compared with $6.95@7.45 projected in January, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, increased export projections for hard red winter, white and soft red winter more than offset a reduction for hard red spring.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 333 million bus, down 5 million bus, or 1%, from 338 million bus in January and down 53 million bus, or 14%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 395 million bus, up 5 million bus, or 1%, from 390 million bus the prior month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 243 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 6%, from January but up 72 million bus, or 42%, from 171 million bus in 2011. Soft red exports in 2011-12 were projected at 130 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 13%, from January.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 149 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 7%, from January but down 36 million bus, or 19%, from 185 million bus in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 230 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 4%, from 240 million bus in January.

White wheat carryover was projected at 97 million bus in 2012, down 15 million bus, or 13%, from 112 million bus in January but up 12 million bus, or 14%, from 85 million bus in 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 200 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 8%, from 185 million bus in January.
Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 23 million bus, unchanged from January and down 12 million bus, or 34%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 692.88 million tonnes, up 1.38 million tonnes from January, up 41.27 million tonnes, or 6%, from 651.61 million tonnes the prior year and 7.44 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.44 million tonnes in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said. Global wheat use was projected at 680.48 million tonnes, down 950,000 tonnes from January but up 28.19 million tonnes, or 4%, from 653.24 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 140.25 million tonnes, up 880,000 tonnes from January and up 8.43 million tonnes from 131.82 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at a record 213.10 million tonnes, up 3.08 million tonnes from January, up 12.40 million tonnes, or 6%, from 200.70 million tonnes in 2010-11 and 2.4 million tonnes above the prior record in 1999-00, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn production in 2011 was projected at 12,358 million bus, unchanged from January but down 89 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bus, up 5 million bus from January but down 8 million bus from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,506 million bus, up 5 million bus from January but down 676 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, unchanged from January (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus and food and seed use at 1,405 million bus), but down 23 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, unchanged from January but down 193 million bus, or 4%, from 4,793 million bus 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,700 million bus, up 50 million bus, or 3%, from January but down 135 million bus, or 7%, from 1,835 million bus the previous year.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.80@6.60 a bu, compared with $5.70@6.70 a bu in January, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

All 2011-12 U.S. soybean projections were unchanged from January. U.S. 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3,056 million bus, unchanged from January but down 273 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from January but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bus, unchanged from January but down 209 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,011 million bus, unchanged from January but down 269 million bus, or 8%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11. Crushings were projected at 1,615 million bus, unchanged from January and down 33 million bus, or 2%, from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11.

Exports were projected at 1,275 million bus, unchanged from January and down 226 million bus, or 15%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11. Residual use was unchanged from January at 32 million bus, and seed use was unchanged at 88 million bus.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.10@12.30 a bu in 2011-12, compared with $10.95@12.45 a bu in January, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 39.5 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from 38.5 million cwts projected in January but down 9 million cwts, or 19%, from 48.5 million cwts a year earlier. U.S. rice production in 2011 was projected at 185 million cwts, unchanged from January but down 58.1 million cwts, or 24%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. Domestic use and residual was projected at 124 million cwts, unchanged from January but down 13.8 million cwts in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 89 million cwts, down 1 million cwts from January and down 22.6 million cwts, or 20%, from 111.6 million cwts in 2010-11. The average farm price was projected to range from $13.90@14.50 a cwt in 2011-12 compared with $13.80@14.80 in January, $12.70 in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.
World rice ending stocks were projected at 100.12 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 50,000 tonnes from 100.07 million tonnes in January and up 2.89 million tonnes from 97.23 million tonnes in 2010-11. Global rice production in 2011-12 was projected at a record high 462.75 million tonnes, up 1.31 million tonnes from January and up 11.65 million tonnes, or 3%, from 451.10 million tonnes in 2010-11. Total consumption was projected at a record 459.86 million tonnes, up 1.32 million tonnes from January and up 11.82 million tonnes, or 3%, from 448.04 million tonnes in 2010-11.

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