U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 2% from February

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON –U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 825 million bus, down 20 million bus, or 2%, from 845 million bus forecast in February and down 37 million bus, or 4%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The decrease was the result of a 5 million-bu decrease in projected 2011-12 food use of wheat more than offset by a 25 million-bu increase projected in exports.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 838 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bus, unchanged from the February forecast but down 327 million bus, or 29%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was above the average trade estimate of 784 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 275 million bus, also unchanged from February but up 60 million bus, or 28%, from 215 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 257 million bus.

With the exception of food use and exports, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from February. U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1,999 million bus for 2011, unchanged from the February projection and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from February but up 23 million bus, or 24%, from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, also unchanged from February but down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1,000 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 3%, from 975 million bus in February but down 289 million bus, or 22%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 930 million bus, down 5 million bus from February but up 4 million bus from 2010-11. Seed use was unchanged from February at 82 million bus, which was up 11 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 145 million bus, unchanged from February but up 13 million bus, or 10%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11.

Total use was projected at 2,157 million bus, up 20 million bus from 2,137 million bus in February but down 260 million bus, or 11%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

“Projected food use is lowered 5 million bus reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.15@7.45 a bus, unchanged from February and compared with $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, export projections were increased from February by 10 million bus each for hard red spring and white wheat and by 5 million bus for durum.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 336 million bus, up 3 million bus from February but down 50 million bus, or 13%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 395 million bus, unchanged from February, while domestic use was projected at 436 million bus, down 3 million bus from last month.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 243 million bus, unchanged from February but up 72 million bus, or 42%, from 171 million bus in 2011.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 142 million bus, down 7 million bus, or 5%, from February and down 43 million bus, or 23%, from 185 million bus in 2011. Hard spring exports in 2011-12 were forecast at 240 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 4%, from 230 million bus in February, and domestic use was projected at 239 million bus, down 3 million bus from a month ago.

White wheat carryover was projected at 87 million bus in 2012, down 10 million bus, or 10%, from 97 million bus in February but up 2 million bus from 2011. White wheat exports in 2011-12 were projected at 210 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 5%, from 200 million bus in February.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 18 million bus, down 5 million bus from February and down 17 million bus, or 49%, from 35 million bus in 2011.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 694.02 million tonnes, up 1.14 million tonnes from February, up 42.51 million tonnes, or 7%, from 651.51 million tonnes the prior year and 8.43 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.59 million tonnes in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said. Global wheat use was projected at 683.93 million tonnes, up 3.45 million tonnes from February and up 29.57 million tonnes, or 5%, from 654.36 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 142.93 million tonnes, up 2.68 million tonnes from February and up 11.11 million tonnes, or 8%, from 131.82 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 209.58 million tonnes, down 3.52 million tonnes from February but up 10.09 million tonnes, or 5%, from 199.49 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Except for a narrowing of the projected 2011-12 average price, all U.S. corn supply and demand data were unchanged from February. U.S. corn production in 2011 was estimated at 12,358 million bus, unchanged from February but down 89 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bus, down 8 million bus from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,506 million bus, unchanged from February but down 676 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, unchanged from February (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus and food and seed use at 1,405 million bus), but down 23 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, unchanged from February but down 193 million bus, or 4%, from 4,793 million bus 2010-11.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,700 million bus, unchanged from February but down 135 million bus, or 7%, from 1,835 million bus a year ago.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $5.90@6.50 a bu, compared with $5.80@6.60 a bu in February, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

U.S. soybean data for 2011-12 mostly were unchanged from February. The projected average price was increased. U.S. 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3,056 million bus, unchanged from February but down 273 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from February but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bus, unchanged from February but down 209 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean crushings in 2011-12 were projected at 1,615 million bus, unchanged from February but down 33 million bus, or 2%, from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,275 million bus, unchanged from February but down 226 million bus, or 15%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11. Residual was raised 2 million bus from February, to 34 million bus, and seed use was lowered 1 million bus, to 87 million bus, but due to rounding, total use of soybeans in 2011-12 was unchanged from February at 3,011 million bus and down 269 million bus, or 8%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $11.40@12.60 a bu in 2011-12, compared with $11.10@12.30 a bus projected in February, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 40.5 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from February but down 8 million cwts, or 16%, from 48.5 million cwts a year earlier. U.S. rice production in 2011 was estimated at 185 million cwts, unchanged from February but down 58.1 million cwts, or 24%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. Domestic use and residual were projected at 124 million cwts, unchanged from February but down 13.8 million cwts from 2010-11. Imports were projected at 20 million cwts, up 1 million cwts from February and up 1.7 million cwts from 2010-11. Exports were projected at 89 million cwts, unchanged from February as a 1 million cwt reduction in rough rice exports offset a 1 million cwt increase in milled rice exports, and down 22.6 million cwts, or 20%, from 111.6 million cwts in 2010-11.

The average farm price was projected to range from $13.90@14.50 a cwt in 2011-12, which was unchanged from February and compared with $12.70 in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 100.33 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 210,000 tonnes from 100.12 million tonnes in February, up 2.53 million tonnes from 97.8 million tonnes in 2010-11 and the largest since 2002-03, the U.S.D.A. said. Global rice production in 2011-12 was projected at a record high 465.4 million tonnes, up 2.65 million tonnes from February and up 12.18 million tonnes, or 3%, from 453.22 million tonnes in 2010-11. Total consumption was projected at a record 462.88 million tonnes, up 3.02 million tonnes from February and up 13.27 million tonnes, or 3%, from 449.61 million tonnes in 2010-11. Most of the changes in production and consumption resulted from revised milling yield data from about 40 countries, the U.S.D.A. said.

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