U.S. 2012 wheat carryover down 4% from March

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 793 million bus, down 32 million bus, or 4%, from 825 million bus forecast in March and down 69 million bus, or 8%, from 862 million bus in 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The decrease was the result of a 35-million-bu increase in projected 2011-12 feed and residual use only partially offset by a 3-million-bu decrease in seed use.

The projected U.S.D.A. 2012 wheat carryover number was near the average trade expectation of 796 million bus.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was projected at 801 million bus, unchanged from the March forecast and down 327 million bus, or 29%, from 1,128 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. 2012 corn carryover number was well above the average trade estimate of 717 million bus.

Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2011, was projected at 250 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 9%, from 275 million bus projected in March but up 35 million bus, or 16%, from 215 million bus in 2011. The U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number also was just above the average pre-report trade estimate of 246 million bus.

With the exception of seed use and feed and residual use, U.S. all wheat supply and use projections were unchanged from March. U.S. all wheat production was estimated at 1,999 million bus for 2011, unchanged from the March projection and down 208 million bus, or 9%, from 2,207 million bus in 2010. Wheat imports in 2011-12 were projected at 120 million bus, unchanged from March but up 23 million bus, or 24%, from 97 million bus a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,982 million bus for 2011-12, also unchanged from March but down 297 million bus, or 9%, from 3,279 million bus in 2010-11, the U.S.D.A. said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2011-12 were projected at 1,000 million bus, unchanged from March but down 289 million bus, or 22%, from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11.

The U.S.D.A. projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 at 930 million bus, unchanged from March but up 4 million bus from 2010-11. Seed use was projected at 79 million bus in 2011-12, down 3 million bus from March but up 8 million bus from last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 24%, from 145 million bus in March and up 48 million bus, or 27%, from 132 million bus in 2010-11. Total use was projected at 2,189 million bus, up 32 million bus from 2,157 million bus in March but down 228 million bus, or 9%, from 2,417 million bus in 2010-11.

“Projected feed and residual use is raised 35 million bus reflecting higher-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks,” the U.S.D.A. said.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 was projected to range from $7.20@7.40 a bu, compared with $7.15@7.45 a bu projected in March, $5.70 in 2010-11 and $4.87 in 2009-10.

On a by-class basis, 2012 carryover was raised for hard winter and hard spring wheat but lowered for soft red, white and durum wheat.

The U.S.D.A. projected June 1, 2012, carryover of hard winter wheat at 351 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 4%, from March but down 35 million bus, or 9%, from 386 million bus in 2011. Hard winter exports in 2011-12 were projected at 380 million bus, down 15 million bus from March, while domestic use was unchanged at 436 million bus.

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 143 million bus, up 1 million bus from March but down 42 million bus, or 23%, from 185 million bus in 2011. Hard spring supply in 2011-12 was forecast at 620 million bus, down 1 million bus from March, and domestic use was projected at 237 million bus, down 2 million bus from a month ago. Hard spring wheat exports were projected at 240 million bus in 2011-12, unchanged from the March forecast.

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 211 million bus, down 32 million bus, or 13%, from 243 million bus in March but up 40 million bus, or 23%, from 171 million bus in 2011. Domestic supply in 2011-12 was projected at 662 million bus, up 3 million bus from March, while domestic use was projected at 306 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 7%, from 286 million bus in March. Soft red winter exports were projected at 145 million bus for 2011-12, up 15 million bus, or 12%, from 130 million bus in 2010-11.
White wheat carryover was projected at 72 million bus in 2012, down 15 million bus, or 17%, from 87 million bus in March and down 13 million bus from 85 million bus in 2011. White wheat domestic use in 2011-12 was projected at 126 million bus, up 15 million bus, or 14%, from 111 million bus in March. White wheat export projections in 2011-12 were unchanged from March at 210 million bus.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2012, was projected at 17 million bus, down 1 million bus from March and down 18 million bus, or 51%, from 35 million bus in 2011. Durum supply in 2011-12 was projected at 126 million bus, down 2 million bus from March, while domestic use was projected at 84 million bus, down 1 million bus. Durum exports in 2011-12 were projected at 25 million bus, unchanged from March.

“By-class shifts reflect the pace of (export) sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of U.S. soft red winter wheat into Europe, Egypt and Mexico,” the U.S.D.A. said.

Global 2011-12 wheat production was projected at a record 694.32 million tonnes, up 300,000 tonnes from March, up 43.27 million tonnes, or 7%, from 651.05 million tonnes the prior year and 8.73 million tonnes above the previous record of 685.59 million tonnes in 2009-10, the U.S.D.A. said. Global wheat use was projected at 686.76 million tonnes, up 2.83 million tonnes from March and up 31.92 million tonnes, or 5%, from 654.84 million tonnes in 2010-11. World exports were projected at 143.73 million tonnes, up 800,000 tonnes from March and up 11.39 million tonnes, or 9%, from 132.34 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 were projected at 206.27 million tonnes, down 3.31 million tonnes from March but up 7.55 million tonnes, or 4%, from 198.72 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Except for a narrowing of the projected 2011-12 average price, all U.S. corn supply and demand data were unchanged from March. U.S. corn production in 2011 was estimated at 12,358 million bus, unchanged from March but down 89 million bus, or 1%, from 12,447 million bus in 2010. Corn imports in 2011-12 were projected at 20 million bus, down 8 million bus from 2010-11. Total supply for 2011-12 was projected at 13,506 million bus, unchanged from March but down 676 million bus, or 5%, from 14,182 million bus in 2010-11.

Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,405 million bus in 2011-12, unchanged from March (including corn for ethanol at 5,000 million bus and food and seed use at 1,405 million bus), but down 23 million bus from 6,428 million bus in 2010-11.

Feed and residual use in 2011-12 was projected at 4,600 million bus, unchanged from March but down 193 million bus, or 4%, from 4,793 million bus 2010-11.

“Prospects for feed and residual disappearance during the remainder of 2011-12 will be limited by an improving outlook for summer wheat feeding and the potential for 2012 new-crop corn sue during August,” the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were projected at 1,700 million bus, unchanged from March but down 135 million bus, or 7%, from 1,835 million bus a year ago.

The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6@6.40 a bu, compared with $5.90@6.50 a bu in March, $5.18 in 2010-11 and $3.55 in 2009-10.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 122.71 million tonnes in 2011-12, down 1.82 million tonnes from March and down 2.31 million tonnes from 125.02 million tonnes in 2010-11. The change was mostly the result of a projected 3.2-million-tonne decrease in projected domestic feed use, to 509.03 million tonnes in 2011-12, only partially offset by slight increases in production and exports.

For soybeans, both 2011-12 projected domestic use and exports were increased from March, as was the projected average price. U.S. 2011 soybean production was estimated at 3,056 million bus, unchanged from March but down 273 million bus, or 8%, from 3,329 million bus in 2010. Imports for 2011-12 were projected at 15 million bus, unchanged from March but up 1 million bus from a year earlier. Total supply in 2011-12 was projected at 3,286 million bus, unchanged from March but down 209 million bus, or 6%, from 3,495 million bus in 2010-11.

U.S. soybean crushings in 2011-12 were projected at 1,630 million bus, up 15 million bus from March but down 18 million bus from 1,648 million bus in 2010-11. Exports were projected at 1,290 million bus, also up 15 million bus from March but down 211 million bus, or 14%, from 1,501 million bus in 2010-11.

Residual was reduced by 4 million bus from March, to 30 million bus, and seed use was lowered 1 million bus, to 86 million bus. Total use soybeans in 2011-12 was projected at 3,036 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 1%, from 3,011 million bus in March, but down 244 million bus, or 7%, from 3,280 million bus in 2010-11.

The average farm price of soybeans was projected to range from $12@12.50 a bu in 2011-12, compared with $11.40@12.60 a bu projected in March, $11.30 in 2010-11 and $9.59 in 2009-10.

Global 2011-12 soybean ending stocks were projected at 55.52 million tonnes, down 1.78 million tonnes from March and down 13.6 million tonnes, or 20%, from 69.12 million tonnes in 2010-11. Global 2011-12 soybean production was projected at 240.15 million tonnes, down 4.92 million tonnes from March and down 24.07 million tonnes, or 9%, from 264.22 million tonnes in 2010-11.

Brazil 2011-12 soybean production was projected at 66 million tonnes, down 2.5 million tonnes from March and down 9.5 million tonnes, or 13%, from 75.5 million tonnes in 2010-11. Production in Argentina was projected at 45 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from March and down 4 million tonnes, or 8%, from 49 million tonnes in 2010-11.

U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2012, was projected at 39 million cwts, down 1.5 million cwts from March and down 9.5 million cwts, or 20%, from 48.5 million cwts a year earlier. U.S. rice production in 2011 was estimated at 185 million cwts, unchanged from March but down 58.1 million cwts, or 24%, from 243.1 million cwts in 2010. Domestic use and residual were projected at 123 million cwts, down 1 million cwts from March and down 14.8 million cwts from 2010-11. Imports were projected at 20.5 million cwts, up 500,000 cwts from March and up 2.2 million cwts from 2010-11. Exports were projected at 92 million cwts, up 3 million cwts from March but down 19.6 million cwts, or 18%, from 111.6 million cwts in 2010-11. The average farm price was projected to range from $13.80@14.20 a cwt in 2011-12 compared with $13.90@14.50 projected in March, $12.70 in 2010-11 and $14.40 a cwt in 2009-10.

World rice ending stocks were projected at 103.29 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 2.96 million tonnes from 100.33 million tonnes in March, up 4.93 million tonnes from 98.36 million tonnes in 2010-11 and the largest since 2001-02, the U.S.D.A. said.

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