Corn, soybean carryovers projected to fall in 2013

by Ron Sterk
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WASHINGTON — The projected 2013 carryover of U.S. wheat, corn and soybeans all were lowered from June projections in today’s U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, with the corn number slashed 37% due to hot, dry weather.

The projected carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2013, was forecast at 664 million bus, down 30 million bus, or 4%, from 694 million bus forecast in June and down 79 million bus, or 11%, from a revised 743 million bus in 2012.

The U.S.D.A. projected carryover of corn in the United States on Sept. 1, 2013, at 1,183 million bus, down 698 million bus, or 37%, from 1,881 million bus projected in June, but up 280 million bus, or 31%, from a revised 903 million bus forecast for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. projected soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2013, at 130 million bus, down 10 million bus, or 7%, from 140 million bus projected in June and down 40 million bus, or 24%, from 170 million bus forecast for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2013 carryover numbers for the three major crops all were below the average of trade expectations that were near 725 million bus for wheat, 1,232 milion bus for corn and 134 million bus for soybeans.

Wheat, corn and soybean futures traded higher after the release of the WASDE and Crop Production reports, with pit trading opening at 7:20 a.m. Central time while electronic trading continued uninterrupted.

For 2011-12, the U.S.D.A. wheat estimated beginning stocks and production were unchanged but imports were lowered by 5 million bus, to 115 million bus, resulting in total supply of 2,977 million bus, down 5 million bus from its June forecast. Use of wheat for food was estimated at 940 million bus, unchanged from June. Seed use was estimated at 77 million bus, down 2 million bus from June, feed and residual at 169 million bus, down 11 million bus, and total domestic use at 1,186 million bus, down 13 million bus. Exports of U.S. wheat in 2011-12 were estimated at 1,048 million bus, down 7 million bus from the June estimate. Total wheat use in 2011-12 was estimated at 2,234 million bus, down 20 million bus from June, with carryover on June 1, 2012, estimated at 743 million bus, up 15 million bus from June. The 2011-12 all wheat average price was estimated at a record high $7.24 a bu, down 1c from June.

The U.S.D.A. projected U.S. 2012 wheat production at 2,224 million bus, down 10 million bus from its June projection. Imports in 2012-13 were unchanged at 120 million bus. Total supply for 2012-13 was projected at 3,087 million bus, up 5 million bus from June and up 110 million bus, or 4%, from 2,977 million bus last year.

Wheat used for food in 2012-13 was projected at 950 million bus, up 5 million bus from June and up 10 million bus from 2011-12. Seed use was unchanged from June at 73 million. Feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 200 million bus, down 20 million bus from June but up 31 million bus, or 18%, from 169 million bus in 2011-12. Total 2012-13 domestic use was projected at 1,223 million bus, down 15 million bus from June but up 37 million bus, or 3%, from 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,200 million bus in 2012-13, up 50 million bus from June and up 152 million bus, or 15%, from 1,048 million bus last year. Total use was projected at 2,423 million bus, up 35 million bus, or 1%, from June and up 189 million bus, or 8%, from 2,234 million bus in 2011-12.

The average price of all wheat paid to farmers in 2012-13 was projected to range from $6.20@7.40 a bu, up 60c on each end of the range from June and compared with a record $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

In its first by-class wheat projections for 2012-13, the U.S.D.A. projected the carryover of hard red winter at 266 million bus on June 1, 2013, down 51 million bus from a lower-revised 317 million bus in 2012.

Hard spring carryover in 2013 was projected at 155 million bus, up 4 million bus from an upwardly-revised 151 million bus in 2012. Soft red carryover was projected at 143 million bus, down 42 million bus from a lower-revised 185 million bus in 2012. White wheat was projected at 60 million bus in 2013, down 4 million bus from 2012 carryover. Durum carryover on June 1, 2013, was projected at 40 million bus, up 14 million bus from an upwardly-revised 26 million bus in 2012.

World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 were projected at 182.44 million tonnes, down 3.32 million tonnes from 185.75 million tonnes in June and down 14.74 million tonnes, or 7%, from 197.18 million tonnes estimated for 2011-12. World wheat production for 2012-13 was projected at 665.33 million tonnes, down 6.73 million tonnes from June and down 29.36 million tonnes, or 4%, from 694.69 million tonnes in 2011-12. Global wheat consumption was projected at 680.06 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 1.81 million tonnes from June and down 14.68 million tonnes, or 2%, from 694.74 million tonnes in 2011-12. World wheat exports were projected at 134.71 million tonnes, down 710,000 tonnes from June and down 15.69 million tonnes, or 10%, from 150.4 million tonnes in 2011-12.

Although not survey based, the U.S.D.A. projected 2012 corn production at 12,970 million bus, down 1,820 million bus, or 12%, from 14,790 million bus projected in June. The production forecast was based on projected harvested area of 88.9 million acres, down 200,000 acres from the June projection, and average yield of 146 bus an acre, down 20 bus from 166 bus an acre in June.

“Persistent and extreme June dryness across the central Plains to the Ohio River Valley have substantially lowered yield prospects across most of the major growing regions,” the U.S.D.A. said.

For 2012-13 the U.S.D.A. projected U.S. corn imports at 30 million bus, up 15 million bus from June and up 8 million bus from 2011-12. Total corn supply in 2012-13 was projected at 13,903 million bus, down 1,753 million bus, or 11%, from June but up 395 million bus, or 3%, from 13,508 million bus in the current year.

Feed and residual use for 2012-13 was projected at 4,800 million bus, down 650 million bus, or 12%, from 5,450 million bus in June but up 250 million bus, or 5%, from 4,550 million bus in 2011-12. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 6,320 million bus, down 105 million bus from 6,425 million bus in June and down 135 million bus from 6,455 million bus in 2011-12. Corn used for ethanol in 2012-13 was projected at 4,900 million bus, down 100 million bus from June and down 150 million bus from 2011-12. Total domestic use was projected at 11,120 million bus, down 755 million bus, or 6%, from June but up 115 million bus from 2011-12.

Exports were projected at 1,600 million bus in 2012-13, down 300 million bus, or 16% from 1,900 million bus in June and unchanged from 2011-12. Total use in 2012-13 was projected at 12,720 million bus, down 1,055 million bus, or 8%, from 12,605 million bus in 2011-12.

The average price of corn in 2012-13 was projected to range from $540@6.40 a bu, up sharply from $4.20@5 in June.

For 2011-12, the U.S.D.A. raised estimated U.S. corn imports by 2 million bus, to 22 million bus, resulting in total supply of 13,508 million bus, also up 2 million bus from June. Domestic corn use in 2011-12 was unchanged from June at 11,005 million bus. Estimated U.S. corn exports in 2011-12 were 1,600 million bus, down 50 million bus from June, resulting in total use of 12,605 million bus, also down 50 million bus from June. Carryover on Sept. 1, 2012, was estimated at 903 million bus, up 52 million bus from June.

The average price of corn paid to farmers in 2011-12 was estimated at $6.10@6.30 a bu, up from $5.95@6.25 a bu in June and from $5.18 in 2010-11.

World corn ending stocks in 2012-13 were projected at 134.09 million tonnes, down 21.65 million tonnes, or 14%, from 155.74 million tonnes projected in June but up 4.72 million tonnes, or 4%, from 129.37 million tonnes in 2011-12.

U.S. soybean production in 2012 was projected at 3,050 million bus, down 155 million bus, or 5%, from June and down 6 million bus from 2011. Total soybean supply in 2012-13 was projected at 3,235 million bus, down 160 million bus from June and down 51 million bus from 3,056 million bus in 2011-12.

Projected U.S. soybean crush in 2012-13 was 1,610 million bus, down 35 million bus, or 2%, from the June projection and down 65 million bus, or 4%, from an upwardly-revised 1,675 million bus in 2011-12. Exports of U.S. soybean in 2012-13 were projected at 1,370 million bus, down 115 million bus, or 8%, from 1,485 million bus in June but up 30 million bus, or 2%, from an upwardly revised 1,340 million bus in 2011-12. Seed use in 2012-13 was unchanged from June at 89 million bus, and up 1 million bus from 2011-12. Residual was projected at 35 million bus, down 1 million bus from June but up 22 million bus from a downwardly-revised 13 million bus in 2011-12.

The average price of soybeans paid to U.S. farmers in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13@15 a bu, up $1 from June and compared with $12.40 in the current year and $11.30 in 2010-11.

World soybean ending stocks were projected at 55.66 million tonnes in 2012-13, down 2.88 million tonnes, or 5%, from 58.54 million tonnes in June but up 3.15 million tonnes, or 6%, from 52.51 million tonnes in 2011-12.

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