WASHINGTON — In the first forecast for the 2016-17 marketing year, the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2017, was projected at 1,029 million bus, up 51 million bus, or 5%, from the current year estimate of 978 million bus, which was up 2 million bus from the April forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
If realized, the 2017 wheat carryover will be the largest since the 1987-88 crop year, the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A. 2017 all wheat carryover number was 3% above the average trade expectation of 997 million bus, while the 2016 carryover was slightly below the trade average of 981 million bus.
Total wheat supply in 2016-17 was projected at 3,106 million bus, up 182 million bus, or 6%, from 2,924 million bus in 2015-16. The U.S.D.A. projected 2016 U.S. all wheat production at 1,998 million bus, down 54 million bus, or 3%, from 2,052 million bus in 2015, as a 9% reduction in harvested area, projected at 42.8 million acres, more than offset a 7% increase in average yield, projected at 46.7 bus per acre.
“The survey-based forecast for 2016-17 winter wheat production is up with higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Winter wheat has benefited from excellent spring growing conditions and yields are projected higher. Spring wheat and durum production for 2016-17 is projected to decline 16% on lower area, as well as a return to trend yield, which is below last year’s level.”
Total 2016-17 wheat use was projected at 2,077 million bus, up 131 million bus, or 7%, from 1,946 million bus in 2015-16 based on domestic use of 1,202 million bus, up 36 million bus, or 3%, from 1,166 million bus this year and exports of 875 million bus, up 95 million bus, or 12%, from 780 million bus in 2015-16, which were raised 5 million bus from April.
Even though the 2016-17 export forecast is up from the prior year, it still is well below average as “large supplies in several major competing countries will continue to limit U.S. exports,” the U.S.D.A. said.
The initial all wheat average price for 2016-17 was projected at $email@example.com a bu, compared with $4.90 a bu estimated for the current year and $5.99 a bu in 2014-15.
Only minor changes were made in 2015-16 wheat-by-class numbers. Initial wheat-by-class estimates for 2016-17 will be issued by the U.S.D.A. in July.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2017, was projected at 2,153 million bus, up 350 million bus, or 19%, from a downwardly revised 1,803 million bus in 2016. If realized, 2017 carryover would be the highest since the mid-1980s. The U.S.D.A. 2017 U.S. corn carryover number was below the average trade expectation of 2,294 million bus. The 2016 carryover also was below the trade average of 1,841 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2016 U.S. corn production at a record 14,430 million bus, up 829 million bus, or 6%, from 13,601 million bus in 2015, based on harvested area of 85.9 million acres, up 5.2 million, or 6%, from 2015, and yield of 168 bus an acre, down 0.4 bus from last year. Total corn supply in 2016-17 was projected at a record 16,273 million bus and use at a record 14,120 million bus.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2017, was projected at 305 million bus, down 95 million bus, or 24%, from a downwardly revised 400 million bus in 2016. The 2017 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was well below the average trade expectation near 405 million bus. The 2016 number also was below the trade average of 426 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2016 U.S. soybean production at 3,800 million bus, down 129 million bus, or 3%, from 3,929 million bus in 2015, based on harvested area at 81.4 million acres, down 400,000 acres from 2015, and yield at 46.7 bus an acre, down 1.3 bus from last year.
The soybean numbers were the biggest surprise, and soy complex futures were trading sharply higher after the report, while corn futures were higher and wheat futures were up slightly.Wheat production was based on a combination of survey results for winter wheat and trend projections for durum and other spring. The first survey-based durum, other spring wheat, corn and soybean numbers will be released in August.