WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its March 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2017, at 1,677,000 short tons, raw value, down 131,000 tons, or 7%, from its February projection and down 377,000 tons, or 18%, from 2,054,000 tons on Oct. 1, 2016.
The projected 2016-17 ending stocks-to-use ratio was revised to 13.6% from 14.8% in February and compared with 17% in 2015-16.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2016-17 U.S. beet sugar production at 5,106,000 tons, down 265,000 tons, or 5%, from February and down 13,000 tons from last year. Cane sugar production was unchanged from February at 3,869,000 tons.
“Sucrose recovery from sugar beet slicing reported by processors … for the period covering the six months between August 2016 and January 2017 … imply a final crop-year recovery projection from slicing at 13.9%, which is much less than the 14.7% underlying previous projections based on historical averages,” the U.S.D.A. said in its WASDE comments.
Total imports in 2016-17 were forecast at 2,978,000 tons, up 234,000 tons, or 8.5%, from February but down 11% from 3,341,000 tons last year. Tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,576,000 tons, up 44,093 tons from September based on the U.S.D.A.’s Feb. 24 T.R.Q. increase for specialty sugar. Imports from Mexico were forecast at 1,162,000 tons, up 189,780 tons, or 19.5%, from February but down 11% from 1,309,000 tons last year. Total sugar supply in 2016-17 was forecast at 14,007,000 tons, down 31,000 tons from last month’s forecast.
Deliveries of sugar for food were forecast at 12,100,000 tons, up 100,000 tons, or 1%, from February, “based on strong deliveries in the first four months of the fiscal year and a continuation of that growth, but at a reduced rate for the remainder of the year,” the U.S.D.A. said.
There were no changes to 2015-16 estimates for the United States or Mexico.
Mexico’s 2016-17 ending stocks were forecast at 1,278,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 49,000 tonnes, or 4%, from the February forecast and up 23% from 1,037,000 tonnes last year. Exports in 2016-17 were forecast at 1,421,000 tonnes, down 49,000 tonnes, or 3%, from February but up 18% from 1,207,000 tonnes last year. Other 2016-17 forecasts for Mexico were unchanged from February.Exports from Mexico to the United States were forecast at 994,502 tonnes, actual weight, up 162,421 tonnes from February, with exports to other countries projected residually at 426,354 tonnes. The estimate of increased exports to the United States was based on changes made in the March WASDE U.S. forecasts “as per the Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement,” the U.S.D.A. said.