The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 10 Crop Production report reduced 2009 spring wheat and durum production estimates from September and lowered its corn production forecast by 1% from October. At the same time, the department raised its soybean forecast by 2%.
Because of the delayed harvest, the U.S.D.A. in late October resurveyed farmers in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming who had not completed harvesting spring wheat, durum, barley and oats prior to the survey for the Sept. 30 Small Grains 2009 Summary. Production of all four crops was reduced from September.
Hard red spring wheat production for 2009 was estimated at 547,933,000 bus, down 2,950,000 bus, or 0.5%, from September but up 35,795,000 bus, or 7%, from last year. Harvested area for spring wheat other than durum was reduced 100,000 acres in North Dakota but was unchanged in the other states, the U.S.D.A. said. Average yield was reduced 1 bu per acre in Minnesota, raised 0.5 bu per acre in North Dakota and left unchanged in Idaho and Montana.
The durum outturn was estimated at 109,042,000 bus, down 1,035,000 bus, or 1%, from September but up 25,215,000 bus, or 30%, from 2008. Harvested area was reduced 30,000 acres in Montana and 60,000 acres in North Dakota, while average yields were increased by 1 bu an acre in both states. Idaho area was unchanged, but yield rose by 2 bu.
Total 2009 wheat production was reduced by 4 million bus from September, to 2,216,171,000 bus. Spring white wheat numbers were unchanged as were winter wheat estimates.
Sept. 1 on-farm all-wheat and durum stocks also were adjusted as the result of the survey. All wheat on-farm stocks were revised to 835,500,000 bus, down from 840,000,000 bus in the Sept. 30 U.S.D.A. Grain Stocks report. Wheat stocks in all positions were revised to 2,210,667,000 bus, down a like amount since off-farm stocks were unchanged. Durum on-farm stocks were revised to 74,100,000 bus from 75,600,000 bus as initially reported. Durum stocks in all positions as of Sept. 1 were revised to 101,789,000 bus from 103,289,000 bus.
In its regular production report based on Nov. 1 conditions, the U.S.D.A. forecast the 2009 corn outturn at 12,921 million bus, down 97 million bus, or 1%, from 13,018 million bus forecast in October, but up 7% from 12,101 million bus last year. It would be the second-largest crop ever. Corn yield was forecast to average a record 162.9 bus an acre, down 1.3 bus per acre from last month but up 9 bus per acre from last year, the U.S.D.A. said.
The 2009 soybean crop was forecast at a record 3,319 million bus, up 69 million bus, or 2%, from 3,250 million bus as forecast in October and up 12% from 2,967 million bus in 2008. The average soybean yield based on Nov. 1 conditions was forecast at 43.3 bus per acre, up 0.9 bus from October, up 3.6 bus from last year and the highest on record, the U.S.D.A. said.
The U.S.D.A. corn forecast was below the average of analysts’ pre-report estimates, while the soybean forecast was above the average estimate.