WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 12 Crop Production report forecast 2018 outturn of U.S. spring wheat other than durum at 613,970,000 bus, up 48% from 416,236,000 bus in 2017 and the third highest on record after 1996 and 1992. Durum production was forecast at 74,892,000 bus, up 36% from 54,909,000 bus in 2017, and winter wheat outturn was forecast at 1,192,585,000 bus, down 5,131,000 bus, or 0.4%, from the June forecast of 1,197,716,000 bus and down 6% from 1,269,437,000 bus in 2017.
Spring wheat other than durum average yield was forecast record high at 47.6 bus per acre, up 6.6 bus, or 16%, from 41 bus per acre in 2017, and harvested area was forecast at 12,899,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 27% from last year. Record high yields were forecast for North Dakota and Minnesota.
Of the spring wheat total, hard red spring accounted for 583,949,000 bus, up 52% from 385,005,000 bus in 2017.
Durum average yield was forecast at 40.7 bus per acre, up 15 bus, or 58%, from 25.7 bus per acre in 2017. Harvested area was forecast at 1,841,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 14% from 2017.
Winter wheat average yield was forecast at 48 bus per acre, down 0.4 bu from June and down 2.2 bus, or 4.4%, from 50.2 bus per acre last year. Harvested area was forecast at 24,831,000 acres, unchanged from June but down 2% from 25,291,000 acres in 2017.
Of the winter wheat total, hard red winter accounted for 657,385,000 bus, up 1% from June, soft red winter 302,815,000 bus, down 4% from June, and white winter 232,385,000 bus, up slightly from last month.
All wheat production was forecast at 1,881,447, 000 bus, up 8% from 1,740,582,000 bus in 2017. Average yield was forecast at 47.5 bus per acre, up 1.2 bus, or 2.6%, from 46.3 bus per acre in 2017. All wheat harvested area was forecast at 39,571,000 acres, up 5% from 37,586,000 acres in 2017.
The U.S.D.A. forecasts were above the average of trade expectations for all wheat and other spring wheat, slightly above for durum and slightly below for winter wheat.
In its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2019, at 985 million bus, up 39 million bus, or 4.1%, from 946 million as the June forecast but down 115 million bus, or 10%, from 1,100 million bus on June 1, 2018. The increase resulted from higher beginning stocks and production only partially offset by forecast higher 2018-19 feed and residual use and exports, with the latter forecast at 975 million bus, up 25 million bus from June and up 74 million bus from 901 million bus in 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2019, at 580 million bus, up 195 million bus, or 51%, from 385 million bus forecast in June and up 115 million bus, or 25%, from 465 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2018. Projected 2018-19 soybean exports were 2,040 million bus, down 250 million bus, or 11%, from 2,290 million bus as the June forecast and down 45 million bus, or 2.2%, from 2,085 million bus forecast for 2017-18. U.S. soybean exports for 2017-18 were raised 20 million bus from the June forecast.
The sharp drop in forecast exports for 2018-19 more than offset slightly lower total supply and a 45-million-bu increase from June in soybean crush, forecast at a record 2,045 million bus next year.
The average price of soybeans paid to farmers in 2018-19 was forecast to range between $8 and $10.50 per bu, down 75c from the June forecast and compared with $9.35 per bu forecast for the current year.
“Soybean and product trade changes reflect the impact of China’s recently imposed soybean import duties in addition to other global oilseed supply and demand changes this month,” the U.S.D.A. said in comments accompanying the WASDE data. “Soybean exports are reduced 250 million bus to 2.040 billion reflecting the impact of China’s import duties. Despite losing market share to China, soybean exports are supported in other markets as lower U.S. prices increase demand and market share.”
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of U.S. corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1,552 million bus, down 25 million bus from the June forecast and down 475 million bus, or 23%, from 2,027 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2018. The decrease from June resulted from higher 2018 corn production, forecast at 14,230 million bus, and lower food, seed and industrial use being more than offset by lower beginning stocks, increased feed and residual use and higher exports, with the latter forecast at 2,225 million bus in 2018-19, up 125 million bus from June but down 175 million bus from 2,400 million bus forecast in the current year.
The U.S.D.A. forecasts for 2018-19 carryover were well below the trade average for corn, well above for soybeans and slightly above for wheat.
After the reports, corn and winter wheat futures traded modestly higher, spring wheat about flat and soy complex futures down slightly.