WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, raised its projected 2019 corn, soybean and wheat carryover from September.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was projected at 1,813 million bus, up 39 million bus, or 2.2%, from the September forecast but down 327 million bus, or 15%, from 2,140 million bus as the 2018 estimate, which was raised 138 million bus, or 7%, from September.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, was projected at 885 million bus, up 40 million bus, or 4.7%, from September and up 102% from 438 million bus as the 2018 estimate, which was raised 43 million bus, or 10%, from the September estimate.
Mostly minor changes were made in the wheat supply-and-demand balance sheet, with most adjustments related to changes in prior U.S.D.A. Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports. The carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2019, was projected at 956 million bus, up 21 million bus, or 2.3%, from the September projection but down 143 million bus, or 13%, from 1,099 million bus in 2018.
On a wheat-by-class basis, hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2019, was projected at 424 million bus, up 15 million bus from September based on a 5-million-bu decline in domestic use and a 10-million-bu drop in exports. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 170 million bus, down 3 million bus from last month as an 8-million-bu reduction in total supply was partially offset by a 5-million-bu drop in domestic use. Hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 261 million bus, up 9 million bus from September based on a like increase in total supply. White wheat carryover was projected at 57 million bus, down 8 million bus from September based on a 10-million-bu increase in exports only partially offset by a 2-million-bu increase in total supply. Durum carryover was raised 8 million bus to 44 million bus based on a like increase in total supply.
The U.S.D.A. 2019 carryover projections for corn and all wheat were below the average of trade expectations, but the soybean forecast was above the trade average.