WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its Feb. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast the carryover of U.S. sugar on Oct. 1, 2019, at 1,795,000 short tons, raw value, up 131,698 tons, or 8%, from the December projection but down 213,000 tons, or 11%, from an upwardly revised carryover of 2,008,000 tons in 2018. Because of the partial government shutdown, the U.S.D.A. did not issue a WASDE report in January.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2018-19 was forecast at 14.6%, up from 13.5% as the December projection and compared with 16.1% in 2017-18, which was raised from 15.6% in December.
For 2017-18, the only change was a 59,700-ton reduction in miscellaneous use, revised to 82,000 tons, “based on cane processors’ and refiners’ revisions in the Sweetener Market Data,” the U.S.D.A. said. As a result, total use was lowered to 12,438,000 tons and ending stocks were raised to 2,008,000 tons.
For the current year (2018-19), beet sugar production was unchanged from December at 4,900,000 tons, “as an increase in projected sucrose recovery from sliced sugar beets is offset by less sugar beet production,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,117,000 tons, up 2% from 4,041,000 tons forecast in December based on higher forecasts for Florida and Louisiana.
“Cane sugar production for 2018-19 in Louisiana is increased to 1.875 million tons based on a reporting of cane processor manufacturing results completed in January,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Cane sugar production in Florida is increased to 2.091 million tons based on higher sugar cane production forecast by NASS and a processor recovery forecast of 12.48%.”
Texas production was unchanged.
Imports were forecast at 3,076,000 tons, based on a 4,002-ton reduction from December in tariff-rate quota imports, forecast at 1,560,000 tons. “Lower-than-expected entries of Free Trade Agreement sugar under calendar-year 2018 T.R.Q.s more than offset additional 2017-18 World Trade Organization T.R.Q. sugar entered under U.S.D.A. waivers in October 2018,” the U.S.D.A. said. There was no revision to imports from Mexico as the export limit under the suspension agreements is not required to be adjusted again, if needed, until March.
There were no changes from December to U.S. forecast exports, domestic deliveries or miscellaneous use for 2018-19, with supply changes accounting for the higher ending stocks forecast.
The U.S.D.A. made no changes from December to any of its 2017-18 or 2018-19 supply or demand estimates for Mexico.