WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 11 forecast the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2020, at 1,072 million bus, down 69 million bus from the May outlook and down 30 million bus from a downwardly revised 1,102 million bus in 2018-19 (the 25-million-bu decline in the 2019 carryover reflected a 25-million-bu hike in estimated 2018-19 exports to 950 million bus). As forecast, the 2020 wheat carryover would be the smallest since 976 million bus in 2016 and compare with 1,022 million bus as the recent five-year average carryover.
A 50-million-bu increase in projected wheat feeding in 2019-20 was the principal factor behind the cut in the 2020 carryover. Dimming prospects for the 2019 corn crop have raised expectations for wheat feeding in the current crop year.
The U.S.D.A. forecast all-wheat production in 2019 at 1,903 million bus, up 6 million bus from the May projection and up 19 million bus from 1,884 million bus in 2018. The recent five-year average all-wheat outturn was 2,004 million bus.
The U.S.D.A. in its June Crop Production report raised its forecast for winter wheat production by 5,990,000 bus, to 1,274,451,000 bus. The hard red winter wheat crop was forecast at 794,395,000 bus, up 14,020,000 bus from the May projection and up 132,146,000 bus, or 20%, from 662,249,000 bus in 2018. The soft red winter wheat crop was forecast at 258,302,000 bus, down 6,263,000 bus from May and down 27,256,000 bus, or 10%, from 285,558,000 bus in 2018. Soft white winter wheat production was forecast at 199,355,000 bus, down 1,906 million bus from May and down 17,430,000 bus, or 8%, from 216,785,000 bus in 2018. Hard white winter wheat production was forecast at 22,399,000 bus, up 139,000 bus from May and up 3,052,000 bus, or 16%, from 19,347,000 bus in 2018.
The all-winter wheat production forecast at 1,274,451,000 bus suggested a spring wheat forecast (including durum) at 628,549,000 bus compared with 700,061,000 bus in 2018.
With imports forecast at 140 million bus, the U.S.D.A. projected total wheat supply in 2019-20 at 3,145 million bus, down 19 million bus from the May projection but up 22 million bus from 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast food use of wheat in 2019-20 at a record 965 million bus, unchanged from May and up 5 million bus from 2018-19. Seed use of wheat in 2019-20 was forecast at 68 million bus, unchanged from May and compared with 62 million bus in 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast feed and residual use of wheat in 2019-20 at 140 million bus, up 50 million bus from the May outlook and up 90 million bus from 50 million bus in 2018-19.
Wheat exports in 2019-20 were forecast at 900 million bus, unchanged from the May projection but down 50 million bus from 950 million in 2018-19.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2019-20 at $5.10 a bu, up 40c a bu from the May projection but down 10c from $5.20 in 2018-19. In commentary accompanying the June WASDE, the U.S.D.A. said, “The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019-20 corn supplies.”