WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 Crop Production report forecast 2019 outturn of U.S. spring wheat other than durum at 572,255,000 bus, down 8% from 623,232,000 bus in 2018 but still the second highest since 2015 if realized. Durum production was forecast at 58,116,000 bus, down 25% from 77,287,000 bus in 2018 and the second lowest since 2014. Winter wheat outturn was forecast at 1,290,626,000 bus, up 16,175,000 bus, or 1.3%, from the June forecast of 1,274,451,000 bus, up 9% from 1,183,939,000 bus in 2018 and the highest since 2016.
Spring wheat other than durum average yield was forecast record high at 47.2 bus per acre, down 1.1 bus, or 2.3%, from 48.3 bus per acre in 2018, and harvested area was forecast at 12,125,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 6% from last year.
Of the spring wheat total, hard red spring accounted for 541,815,000 bus, down 8% from 587,007,000 bus in 2018.
Durum average yield was forecast at 42.9 bus per acre, up 3.6 bus, or 9%, from 39.3 bus per acre in 2018. Harvested area was forecast at 1,356,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 31% from 2018.
Winter wheat average yield was forecast at 51.8 bus per acre, up 1.3 bus from June, up 3.9 bus, or 8%, from 47.9 bus per acre last year, and the second highest on record after 55.3 bus per acre in 2016, if realized. Harvested area was forecast at 24,924,000 acres, unchanged from June but up 0.7% from 24,742,000 acres in 2018.
Of the winter wheat total, hard red winter accounted for 804,477,000 bus, up 1.3% from June and up 21% from 2018, soft red winter accounted for 259,173,000 bus, up 0.3% from June but down 9% from last year, and white winter totaled 226,976,000 bus, up 2.4% from last month but down 3.9% from 2018.
All wheat production was forecast at 1,920,997,000 bus, up 1.9% from 1,884,458,000 bus in 2018. Average yield was forecast at 50 bus per acre, up 2.4 bus, or 5%, from 47.6 bus per acre in 2018. All wheat harvested area was forecast at 38,405,000 acres, unchanged from June but down 3% from 397,605,000 acres in 2018.
The U.S.D.A. forecasts were within the range of trade expectations for all wheat and all classes, with the numbers slightly above the averages of trade expectations, except for durum, which was below the average of about 60 million bus.
In its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2020, at 1,000 million bus, down 72 million bus, or 7%, from 1,072 million as both the June forecast and the 2018 estimate. The U.S.D.A. forecast was below the average of trade expectations.
Kansas City and Chicago winter wheat futures rallied about 15c a bu shortly after the reports, and Minneapolis spring wheat was up about 10c a bu.